Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tennessee (08) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidate: Roy Herron, State Senator

Republican candidate: Stephen Fincher, farmer/gospel singer

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: August 9, 2010

Farmer and gospel singer Stephen Fincher beat a field of fellow Republicans in the primary to emerge as the Republican nominee. He will now face the Democrats’ nominee, State Senator Roy Herron in the fall. Herron has $1.1 million in the bank while Fincher is lagging behind in his fundraising efforts with $421,449. Although Herron is off to a good start in terms of fundraising, he faces a difficult fight to defeat Fincher in a tough election year for Democrats. Thus, this seat goes from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.


Candidates from both sides of the aisle have entered the race to fill the open seat for Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District. The Democratic candidates are State Senator Roy Herron and Kimberlee Smith. The Republican candidates are farmer/gospel singer Stephen Fincher, Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn, physician Ron Kirkland, Randy Smith, realtor James Hart, and Bennie Watts.

The 8th Congressional district is historically Democratic, but in recent years has become politically unpredictable. Given the anti-incumbent mood and the conservative leanings of some parts of the district, this race Leans Republican.