Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tennessee (06) House 2010

 

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidate: Brett Carter, Iraq veteran and attorney

Republican candidate: Diane Black, State Senator

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: August 9, 2010

State Senator Diane Black beat a crowded field of candidates in the primary to become the Republican nominee. Her opponent will be Iraq veteran and attorney Brett Carter, who also beat back challengers from within his party to become the Democratic nominee. For now, Black has the advantage in the race as a Republican running in a district that is becoming more Republican-friendly and in a midterm election year favorable to Republicans. This race shifts to Likely Republican.

Background:

The race for the open seat for Tennessee’s 6th Congressional district is on, with many candidates from both parties entering the race. The Democratic candidates are Marine Captain Ben Leming, Iraq veteran/attorney Brett Carter, Devora Butler, businessman George Erdel, Floyd Conover, Henry Barry, and Martin Kelly. The Republican candidates are State Senator Jim Tracy, state Senator Diane Black, former Rutherford Co. GOP chair/activist Lou Ann Zelenik, businessman Kerry Roberts, Army Reservist Major General Dave Evans, realtor Gary Mann, and Bruce McLellan.

While the 6th district is historically Democratic, it has warmed to Republicans in recent years because of redistricting and an influx of new Republican voters. Also, the Democratic candidates remain vulnerable to the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country right now. Although there is some time before the August 5th primary, this race Leans Republican.