Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania (17) House 2010

 

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Tim Holden, Incumbent

Republican candidate: David Argall

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

Tim Holden defeated incumbent George Gekas in 2002, 20 years after the Republican’s initial electoral victory.

Holden is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition and recently case his vote against health care reform. Holden opposed the cuts to Medicare and Medicaid that the new legislation required.

Holden’s only potential Republican competitor heading into Pennsylvania’s May 18 primary is Frank Ryan. Ryan is a former Marine and a small business owner. Like many Congressional candidates, Ryan has established fiscal responsibility as a key platform of his campaign.

Holden had already established a 7:1 lead in campaign fundraising as of the close of 2009. Holden’s four terms of Congressional experience firmly establish Pennsylvania’s 17th district as Likely Democratic.