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Pennsylvania (10) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Chris Carney, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Tom Marino, ex-U.S. Attorney

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Updates: October 14, 2010

This contest remains deadlocked even as GOP nominee Tom Marino is facing questions over his dubious ties and subsequent resignation as a U.S. Attorney. As the press explores the record, the DCCC is already running ads targeting Marino while the NRCC tries to focus attention on Democratic Rep. Chris Carney and his stimulus vote he cast alongside Nancy Pelosi. Voters will have to decide for themselves whose ties are more objectionable. This race moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.

Background:

Incumbent Democrat Chris Carney will try to extend his winning streak to three terms in the 2010 election, after unseating the overwhelmingly popular incumbent, Republican Don Sherwood, in 2006.  Covering a vast swath of land in northeastern Pennsylvania, the 10th District has historically been a Republican bastion in both presidential and congressional elections; Sherwood won by 86 percent in each of the two elections before he was unseated, and the Republican presidential candidate has won each time in the past decade with an average 15 percent margin of victory.

Republican Iraqi War veteran Christopher Bain is flexing his guns at Carney in 2010.  He sent a strong message by officially announcing his candidacy at a “tea party,” and as a recipient of the Purple Heart medal, he has made veteran care the cornerstone of his platform.  However, with no political experience and a lot of unattractive partisan passion, Bain might be better off retreating and consolidating his forces until a later time. This one LEANS DEMOCRAT.