Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania (07) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Bryan Lentz, State Representative

Republican candidate: Patrick Meehan, former Delaware Country District Attorney

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

In this suburban Philadelphia district that includes most of Delaware County, popular incumbent Democrat Joe Sestak has decided not to run again and instead he is challenging Arlen Specter in the 2010 Senate race.  He leaves behind an open void that makes this race just about anyone’s game.  On the Democratic side, state Representative Bryan Lentz and political consultant Teresa Touey have thrown their hats into the ring, and former Delaware County District Attorney, Patrick Meehan, has done the same in the Republican corner.

Prior to Sestak’s 2006 victory, Republican Curt Weldon had convincingly controlled the congressional seat for 20 years, yet in the past three presidential elections, Democratic candidates have won by increasing margins—3, 6, and 13 percent, respectively.  It is too early to pick a favorite in the 7th District, where the constituents are currently more intent on watching their beloved Eagles and Phillies than the 2010 candidates.  This race is a Toss-Up.