Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania (04) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Jason Altmire, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Keith Rothfus, Attorney and Former Homeland Security Official

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire has been representing the conservative Pittsburgh suburbs since 2006. Riding the Democratic tide, he threw down the “steel curtain” around Republican incumbent Melissa Hart and then successfully defended his new title against her in the 2008 election. He now faces a new opponent, Republican lawyer Keith Rothfus, in 2010, and there is also talk of state House Republican Whip Mike Turzai running too. Despite the district’s slight Democratic voting registration edge, Republican candidates on the national level have fared well there, including wins by George W. Bush both times and John McCain in 2008. Though, Altmire’s voting record of breaking with the Democrats on numerous occasions, including over the cap and trade bill, will make him a particularly difficult opponent for the virtually unknown Republican candidates. Just in case, though, Altmire should keep from breaking out his “terrible towel” of victory just yet. This race is Likely Democratic.