Sabato's Crystal Ball

Oregon (05) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: Kurt Shrader, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Scott Bruun, Former State Representative

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Kurt Schrader won the Congressional seat for Oregon’s 5th district in 2008 in the same election that Obama took over 58% of Oregon’s vote. The seat had formerly belonged to retiring Democratic Congresswoman Darlene Hooley. Prior to Hooley, the district had switched hands between Republicans and Democrats since its creation in 1983. Schrader is a former member of both the Oregon State Senate and the Oregon State House of Representatives.

Though he initially opposed health care reform, and voted against it last summer, Schrader became an undecided in the weeks leading up to the vote and eventually voted for the legislation on March 21. Schrader had previously found fault with the Medicare reimbursement aspect of the bill, but he was able to reach an acceptable agreement with Congressional leadership that allowed him to vote “yes.” Schrader has recently joined with fellow Blue Dog Coalition Members to introduce legislation targeting excessive government spending.

Only two candidates have emerged as possible competition for Schrader following Oregon’s May 18 primary: Scott Bruun and Fred Thompson. Bruun has an early fuundraising advantage over Thompson, but neither candidate is close to catching the incumbent. Schrader has already taken in more than four times the amount in campaign receipts as his closest Republican competitor. Bruun, like Schrader, is a veteran of the Oregon State House of Representatives. Schrader’s strong lead in fundraising and his incumbency make Oregon’s 5th district Leans Democratic.