Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ohio (06) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidates: Charlie Wilson, Incumbent

Republican candidates: Bill Johnson, Veteran and Businessman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 14, 2010

Republicans sense a golden opportunity in  OH-6 where they claim to hold a slim lead over Democrat Charlie Wilson. They have moved their nominee, Bill Johnson, to “Young Gun” status and started running ads this week, accusing Wilson of being a patsy for Nancy Pelosi. Before Wilson took the seat in 2006, it belonged to now-Governor Ted Strickland. With Strickland’s reelection bid faltering and Democratic Senate hopes in Ohio all but dashed, Wilson will not be getting much help from the top of the ticket. Wilson has bounced back before, most notably by winning a write-in bid for the Democratic nomination in 2006, but this would be a tough test for any pol. Goes from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.

Update: October 6, 2010

Charlie Wilson, a Blue-Dog Democrat, once thought to be a shoe-in for Congress has become now a desirable target for GOPers. One explanation is that the DCCC has pulled funding away from Wilson and others to prop up more vulnerable Dems, who now have begun to stabilize. Nevertheless, polls are showing that GOP challengers, like Republican Bill Johnson, are within considerable striking distance.

This, though, should not greatly excite the Wilson campaign as numerous polls, on both sides, still have him within a margin of 5-10 points over Johnson. To add to Wilson’s advantage is the $600,000 he has on hand compared to the $150,000 challenger Bill Johnson has as well as the almost 2:1 ratio that Wilson has outspent Johnson. For these reasons, this race is Likely Democrat.