Sabato's Crystal Ball

New York (25) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Daniel Maffei, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Ann Marie Buerkle

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Daniel Maffei defeated Republican Dale Sweetland in an open race in 2008 to become the Congressional representative for New York’s 25th district. Jim Walsh, Maffei’s predecessor, declined to seek reelection in 2008 after serving ten terms in Congress. Prior to his run for Congress, Maffei put in several years on Capitol Hill working on two Senatorial staffs and one House committee. Maffei has avoided taking strong stances on issues ahead of the election. The only issue mentioned on his campaign website is the importance of bipartisanship.

Maffei’s possible Republican challengers include Mark Bitz, Ann Buerkle, and Paul Bertan. Although the Republicans have several months to bridge the gap ahead of New York’s September 14 primary, Maffei has already established a huge advantage in fundraising. While Maffei had taken in $1.7 million dollars as of the first quarter of 2010, all of his Republican competitors remained below $200,000 in campaign receipts. Maffei is likely to see a second term after the November election and New York 25th district remains Likely Democratic.