Sabato's Crystal Ball

New York (24) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: Michael Arcuri, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Richard Hanna, Pilot

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

Democratic incumbent Michael Arcuri faces Republican challenger Richard Hanna in a rematch from the 2008 election. Again, Arcuri hopes to win another third term as Representative for the 24th District. The 24th district is historically Republican but has trended toward Democrats over the last decade.

Although Arcuri’s voting record in the House is one of the more conservative amongst New York Democrats, he faces a difficult political climate as a Democratic incumbent. Also, he may have to defend some of his recent controversial votes such as votes for the federal stimulus program and Wall Street bailouts, and vote against Obama’s health care reform bill after supporting the House version last fall. Still, Arcuri may be able to defeat Hanna again if he is able to successfully fundraise and appeal to voters while conducting voter outreach. On the contrary, Hanna, a fiscal conservative, can also attract voters with his business background and by seizing on some voters’ mistrust in government. So, for now this race remains a Toss-Up.