Sabato's Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Maurice Hinchey, Incumbent

Republican candidate: George Phillips

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Background

New York’s 22nd District covers a small section of upstate New York that covers the cities of Binghampton and Ithaca – home of Cornell University and Ithaca College – but has come onto our radar as of recently. Current incumbent Maurice Hinchey first won this seat in 2002 – a surprising pick-up for the Democrats in a year that saw some Republican seat gains after 9/11. Nevertheless, Hinchey has been able to toe the line between constituent’s and party needs.  Nevertheless, since first winning the seat in 2002, Hinchey has handidly won each race with over 60% of the vote, a reason why this race is still likely democratic. Meanwhile, his challenger, George Phillips is closing in, with poll numbers just below 40%. Though by no means an indication that Hinchey will lose, it does mean that Phillips is giving the incumbent him the most competitive race of his career.