Sabato's Crystal Ball

New York (19) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: John Hall, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Nan Hayworth, Physician and Businesswoman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 5, 2010

After moving this race to Leans Democratic earlier this month, the outlook has brightened even further for Republicans and their nominee Nan Hayworth. Democratic incumbent John Hall is only a sophomore, far from entrenched in this district, which has a slight Republican tilt to begin with. This will be his first election facing a Republican headwind and Hayworth is a highly-touted GOP candidate. In a district that is closely divided between the two parties, but with a slight Republican edge, we move this race from Leans D to Toss-Up.

Background:

Prior to the 1992 election, the 19th district of New York had been represented by a democrat since the 1920s. The 19th district was redistricted following the 1990 census and Republicans took the 1992 election. Hamilton Fish and Sue Kelly represented the district between 1993 and 2007. The district returned to Democratic Congressional representation following John Hall’s 2006 victory over Kelly. Hall was reelected in 2008 with nearly 60% of the district’s vote. For the 2010 campaign, Hall is focusing on the two ubiquitous issues of the November election: energy and the economy. Hall hopes to create renewable energy jobs that cannot be outsourced.

Two early frontrunners have already emerged from the field of Republican challengers ahead of the September 14 primary. Gregory Ball and Nan Hayworth have established substantial leads in fundraising, with Hayworth taking in twice as much as her closest competitor as of the first quarter of 2010. Hayworth has even surpassed Hall in available cash-on-hand.