Sabato's Crystal Ball

New York (01) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Tim Bishop, incumbent

Republican candidate: Randy Altschuler, entrepreneur

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Representation of the 1st district of New York has rotated between Democrats and Republicans rather evenly since the 1950s. Democrat Tim Bishop perpetuated this norm by defeating Republican Felix Grucci in the 2002 election after the incumbent had served only one term. Bishop was reelected to his fourth term in 2008 with 58% of the vote. For his 2010 campaign, Bishop will focus on employment and the economy.

Bishop will have strong competition in the form of Republicans challenger Randy Altschuler. Altchuler is an entrepreneur and business owner. He has amassed a large war chest but, much of his campaign is self-financed. George Demos is the only Republican to have taken in a notable amount in campaign receipts ahead of the September 14th primary. Bishop’s 2008 opponent Lee Zeldin has filed to run again in 2010, but has yet to take in enough money to mount a serious challenge against Altschuler and Demos in the primary. Bishop’s popularity and job performance over his past four terms make New York’s 1st district Likely Democratic.