Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Mexico (01) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: Martin Heinrich, incumbent

Republican candidate: Jon Barela, attorney

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Martin Heinrich won an open race in 2008 after former 1st district Representative Heather Wilson opted to run for an open Senate seat rather than seek reelection. Heinrich defeated Republican Darren White with 56% of the district’s vote in the November election. Heinrich is focusing his reelection campaign on clean energy and job creation. As of February, New Mexico’s unemployment was below the national average, but had increased .2% from January to 8.7% statewide.

Heinrich will face Republican Jon Barela in the November election. Barela is the only Republican challenger to file ahead of New Mexico’s June 1st primary. The election will also feature Green Party candidate Alan Woodruff. Though Barela took in only $70,000 less than Heinrich in campaign receipts during the first quarter of 2010, Heinrich still has nearly three times as much in overall receipts and has outspent his opponent by a margin of more than 3 to 1 so far in the election. New Mexico’s 1st district is Leans Democratic.