Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Jersey (12) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Rush Holt, incumbent

Republican candidate: Scott Sipprelle, Venture Capitalist

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 14, 2010

A six-term congressman from NJ-12 which went 58% for Obama in 2008 does not seem like the most natural GOP target. A new poll, however, seems to suggest that it could be. Democratic Rep. Rush Holt is facing self-funding Republican nominee Scott Sipprelle, who actually ran three TV ads before the incumbent ran his first ad in early September. Now a Monmouth University poll suggests Holt better make better use of the remaining time before the election, as he has only a 51%-46% lead and Obama’s approval has fallen to 44%. If this race becomes a serious contest, the battle lines will have moved so far into Democratic territory that Republicans will be in for gains of historic proportions. This seat moves from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.