Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Hampshire (01) House 2010

 

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Carol Shea-Porter, incumbent

Republican candidate: Frank Guinta, former Manchester Mayor

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter will face off against a large field of Republican challengers in the hopes of retaining her seat as Representative for New Hampshire’s first Congressional district. The Republican candidates include former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, former RNC Committeeman/businessman Sean Mahoney, BAE Systems Government Relations VP Richard Ashooh, businessman Bob Bestani, 2008 indie candidate/activist Peter Bearse, Andrew Kohlhofer, Richard Parent, and Kevin Rondeau. For the Republicans, Guinta appears to be the frontrunner.

The first district is the slightly more Republican district of New Hampshire’s two congressional districts. However, Representative Shea-Porter has a fairly liberal voting record, which may be a disadvantage for her. The large field of Republican candidates will generate excitement among the base and also probably turn out other disaffected voters for the September 14th primary. Given the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country and the interest of Republicans in the race, this race Leans Republican.