Sabato's Crystal Ball

Missouri (04) House 2010

 

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
 

Democratic candidate: Ike Skelton, incumbent

Republican candidate: Vicky Kartzler, former state Representative

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

Missouri’s 4th district has been represented by a democrat since 1955 and current House Member Ike Skelton since 1977. Republicans have only won one election to the House in the 4th district since 1935. McCain barely edged out Obama in the 2008 election with 49.4% of the vote to Obama’s 49.3%. Skelton was elected to his 17th term in congress in 2008 with his victory over Republican Jeff Parnell. Skelton took 65.9% of the vote in the election.

Though Skelton believes that the health care system needs reform, he twice voted against the health care reform bill. Skelton believed that the bill did not have the right approach to make a positive change. Skelton has also made the economy a key element of his 2010 campaign platform.

Seven Republicans are currently vying for the opportunity to unseat Skelton in the November election. Two of the seven, Vicky Hartzler and Bill Stouffer, have the advantage of political experience; Hartzler served in the Missouri House of Representatives and Stouffer served in the State Senate. Hartzler and Stouffer also have comparable campaign receipts, both bringing in over $300,000 before the end of 2009.

Despite the large Republican field, Skelton’s 17 terms of experience make the 4th district of Missouri Leans Democratic.