Sabato's Crystal Ball

Massachusetts (04) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Barney Frank, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Sean Bielat

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background

Two polls have Barney Frank below the critical 50 percent mark, but Sean Bielat is polling in the 30s.  Granted that this is an extremely strong Democratic district, these polls reveal that Frank will probably have the closest race of his career. To add, Scott Brown carried the district, which may in fact reveal a rightward move but that election, we tend to believe, was the exception rather than the rule; expect Frank not to face retirement anytime soon. Bielat meanwhile has done probably did the best he can, given past election results, though he can definitely surprise many with posting over 40% if he does. However, this race is Likely Democratic.