Sabato's Crystal Ball

Kentucky (03) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: John Yarmuth, Incumbent 

Republican candidate: Todd Lally

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Although the 3rd district of Kentucky has general leanings towards the Democrats, this seat has been for occupied by a Republican for most of the past two decades. In 2006, however, Democrat John Yarmuth bucked that trend and defeated  Republican incumbent Anne Northup, in what figured to be an especially strong year for Democrats. In 2008, when Northup tried to regain her seat, Yarmuth handedly defeated her with a 20-point lead, thus solidifying his status as the favorite this year.

Surprisingly commercial airline pilot Todd Lally won the GOP nomination in the May 18 primary defeating GOP favorite Jeff Reetz. The Tea Party favorite, Lally surely got a boost from fellow GOPer Rand Paul’s surprise defeat in the Senate Republican primary held the same date. Nevertheless, beyond Tea Party support, Lally has written himself a check of $60,000 to assist him against the much more financially-stronger and richer incumbent John Yarmuth. Still, though recent history has favored Republicans, against the much more organized and financially sound Yarmuth, the Republicans have a tough test. Likely Democrat.