Sabato's Crystal Ball

Florida (24) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Suzanne Kosmas, incumbent

Republican candidate: Sandy Adams, former Deputy Sheriff

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 5th, 2010:

Another in a long string of Democratic incumbents forced to release polling showing themselves in a statistical dead heat, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is in a tenuous position. The NRCC has released two straight polls showing her trailing her GOP opponent, state legislator Sandy Adams, by double-digits and Kosmas has had to go negative early on TV. All of this points to an uphill battle for Kosmas, and the Crystal Ball rating moves from Toss-Up to Leans Republican.

Update (August 13, 2010):

Ahead of the August 24th primary, Democratic incumbent Suzanne Kosmas is facing opponents from both parties. She faces a primary challenge from fellow Democrat and former Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka. However, Partyka is a long-shot candidate and after the primary Kosmas will face a tough reelection battle against her Republican challenger. For now, the Republicans have a large pool of candidates eager to go up against Kosmas in the fall. The Republican candidates include former Ruth’s Chris CEO Craig Miller, Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel, state Rep. Sandy Adams, pilot Tom Garcia , attorney/activist Deon Long. The frontrunners in the Republican primary race are Sandy Adams, Karen Diebel, and Craig Miller. Although Kosmas has raised more money than each of her opponents, with $1.2 million in the bank, she remains vulnerable as a Democratic incumbent.

Background:

Unlike the harmonious and beautiful celestial heavens above Earth, Democratic incumbent Suzanne Kosmas will be blasting off her campaign this year with hopes of securing support from a much more chaotic and unpredictable Florida district. In the 2008 congressional election, Kosmas won with 57 percent of her districts’ votes ousting Republican incumbent Tom Feeney. Her campaign was powered by political thrust and popularity that provided her with considerable campaign financial contributions of over $2 million. Nonetheless, in next year’s election, Kosmas will need more than the usual characters to once again return to Washington, and she must appear animated in light of the nation’s controversial health care debate and dwindling financial support that the NASA space program has recently been receiving. In a district in which Republic Presidential candidate John McCain ignited patronage from 51 percent of the districts’ voters, Kosmas will need to fuel her tanks this year with more than just promises of keeping the Kennedy Space program up and running.

Lou Holtz the former Notre Dame Football coach and ESPN football analyst initially indicated that he would lift off on a campaign to challenge Kosmas. Republicans were ecstatic. With considerable name recognition, this football legend could have provided formidable competition to Kosmas. Unfortunately he has opted to remain grounded at ESPN. Republicans now hope that Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel or Republican state representatives Sandy Adams and Dorothy Hukill will be able to exploit Kosmas’ volatile stance on health care or the NASA space program to capture the district’s seat. Incumbency remains only one of several unmistakable advantages that Kosmas enjoys however. Vice President Joe Biden has embarked on several missions to Orlando in support of Kosmas’ actions last fall in face of the depleting US economy. At this point in time, Suzanne Kormas, this small town real-estate agent appears “go for launch” for a second term.