Sabato's Crystal Ball

Delaware (Al) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: John Carney, Lieutenant Governor

Republican candidate: Glen Urquhart, real estate developer

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

Since 1993, this seat was previously occupied by moderate Republican Michael Castle, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2010. With the seat up for grabs, the Republicans rallied behind Michelle Rollins, an attorney named to the NRCC “Young Guns” program and the recipient of campaign checks from each member of the House GOP leadership. However, the voters nominated Tea Party favorite and real estate developer Glen Urquhart (R).

He is facing Lieutenant Governor John Carney (D), who as of September 20th was leading Urquhart by 18 points (according to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee). In fact, the NRCC recently released a list of 47 races in which it would air television ads; Urquhart’s campaign didn’t make the cut.

It also didn’t help that Urquhart believes the idea of separating church and state came from Adolf Hitler, as he recently told voters, “The next time your liberal friends talk about the separation of church and state, ask them why they’re Nazis.” At this point, it seems as if Delaware has a solid chance of being one of the few Republican House seats the Democrats will take over.  This district LEANS DEMOCRAT.