Sabato's Crystal Ball

Connecticut (05) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D

Democratic candidate: Chris Murphy, incumbent

Republican candidate: Sam Caligiuri, state Senator

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: August 13, 2010

Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy will take on Republican State Senator Sam Caligiuri in the fall. Murphy has a sizable financial advantage over his opponent, with $1.49 million in the bank. Caligiuri, who won the Republican primary this week, has only $80,288 and needs to focus on fundraising. Although this is a difficult year for incumbents, Murphy should have little trouble winning reelection and this race remains leans Democratic.


Chris Murphy defeated 12-term incumbent Nancy Johnson to win the 5th District’s Congressional seat in 2006. In his 2008 reelection, Murphy took 59% of the vote while Obama earned 57% of the district’s vote in the Presidential election.

Murphy had previously served in the Connecticut House of Representatives and the Connecticut Senate before running for Congress. Murphy recently voted with his fellow Democrats to pass health care reform legislation.

The Republican candidates hoping to survive the May Convention (where candidates must receive at least 15% of the vote in order to qualify for the primary) and face Murphy in the August 10 primary include Justin Bernier, Sam Caligiuri, Daniel Carter, William Evans, Mark Greenberg, and Kie Westby. Greenberg and Bernier are the early favorites to face Murphy in November. Despite the bevy of Republican challengers, Connecticut’s 5th District is Likely Democratic.