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Past Columns
The science of Crystal Ball reading is an ever-changing art, and the web site is frequently updated to give you the latest information on the 2008 campaigns. In addition, you can access the text of our e-mail updates. You may also subscribe and get the hot-off-the-press analyses from Larry J. Sabato delivered directly to your inbox.
May 2008
- OBAMA'S VICE-PRESIDENT?
- MCCAIN'S VICE-PRESIDENT?
- OLD MATH, NEW MATH, AND THE DISPUTE OVER THE "POPULAR VOTE"
- THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING REPUBLICAN BASE
Apr 2008
- OBAMA AND SMALL-TOWN AMERICA
- HOW COULD JOHN McCAIN WIN IN NOVEMBER?
- WILL DISAPPOINTED DEMS VOTE FOR MCCAIN?
- THE DEMOCRATIC END GAME:
- SUPERDELEGATE MATH
- WHAT IF DEMOCRATS USED WINNER TAKE ALL?
Mar 2008
- THE LASH OF UNFAIR CRITICISM
- THE CRAPSHOOT OF PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS
- A VIRTUAL TIE:
- THE DEMOCRATIC DOGFIGHT
- THE REAL THREAT TO MCCAIN?
Feb 2008
- VEEP! VEEP!
- DEMOCRATS AND THE POPULAR VOTE
- THE ENTHUSIASM GAP
- SUPER DUPER TUESDAY LIVES UP TO ITS NAME
Jan 2008
- SUPER TUESDAY
- THE NOVEMBER MATCH-UPS, AS SEEN FROM JANUARY
- THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT
- THE PRIMARY TURNOUT BOOM
- CLINTON AS TRUMAN, McCAIN AS LAZARUS, OBAMA-MANIA, HUCKA-BOOM OR BUST, & THE PRESIDENTIAL PLAYERS
- ROOTED IN "HOPE"
- ALL EYES ON THE HAWKEYE STATE
Dec 2007
- CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT
- SENATE SENSIBILITIES
- PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: NOT ALWAYS EASIER THE SECOND TIME
Nov 2007
- NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
- ANOTHER PART OF THE BUSH LEGACY IN QUESTION?
- NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
- HILLARY'S 2006 SENATE RUN: A HARBINGER OF ELECTABILITY?
- 2007 Gubernatorial Contest Outlooks and Virginia General Assembly Update
Oct 2007
- UNIVERSAL NATIONAL SERVICE
- A MISSING CONSTITUTIONAL LINK?
- WRAPPING UP THE NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION
- THE LATEST CALIFORNIA TREND
- PERFECTING THE PRESIDENCY
Sep 2007
- TOWARD A MORE PERFECT CONSTITUTION
- LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON?
- MORE NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
- NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
Aug 2007
- A MAP IN FLUX?
- BILL AND HILLARY: JOINED AT THE BASE
- UNTANGLING THE NETROOTS
- PRIDE, PREJUDICE, AND PRESIDENTS
Jul 2007
- 2007 STATEHOUSE ROCK
- SENATE '08 UPDATE
- THE REPUBLICAN RIDDLE
Jun 2007
- BLOOMIE IN THE BALLPARK
- THE HILLARY DILEMMA
- THE SCANDAL-TINGED SIX:
- THE FRESHMAN FIFTEEN
May 2007
- OF ASHES AND SASHES
- The 2007 Kentucky Gubernatorial Derby: It's Fletcher vs. Beshear
- Jerry Falwell and the Politics of Double-Edged Swords
- INVISIBLE PRIMARIES
- More from THE SIXTH YEAR ITCH
Apr 2007
- THE SIXTH YEAR ITCH Hits Shelves
- Crystal Ball Condolences for Virginia Tech
- MIRROR, MIRROR, ON THE WALL
- BRIGHT REFLECTIONS ON THE CRYSTAL BALL
Mar 2007
- THE OUTRAGE OF EARLY VICE PRESIDENTIAL SPECULATION
- ELECTORAL TRENDS WARM SUNBELT, FREEZE FROSTBELT
- The War on Night People
- WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS
- WE WERE MERELY FRESHMEN?
Feb 2007
- STATEHOUSE SIZZLE
- SENATE RACES '08
- Scheduling Insanity
- Part II: The Republicans in the '08 Presidential Race
- The Conservatives' Days of Malaise
Jan 2007
- THE 55TH QUADRENNIAL ORGY BEGINS...
- Crystal Ball House Outlook
Nov 2006
- 9th Annual American Democracy Conference
- Dear Friends,
- Post-Election 2006: Playing the Numbers Game
- Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS
- HOUSE Text for CB Email
- Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS
Oct 2006
- Crystal Ball Table for October 26 Email
- 2006: THE BIG PICTURE
- Crystal Ball House Outlook
- KILLER INSTINCT, KILLER WAVE - GOP Senate in Danger of Capsizing Too
- Template for Final Predictions
- Crystal Ball House Outlook
- A "Deep Blue Sea" in the 2006 Midterms?
- Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
- Crystal Ball Governor Outlook
- OCTOBER SURPRISE! (And a Leadership Demise?)
Sep 2006
- THE LAY OF THE LAND IN 2006: Republicans Could Stay Dry on Higher Ground
- Dumb Questions for the 2008 Presidential Contest
- Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
- ANGRY POLITICS: "Voters Gone Wild" in 2006
- THE POLITICS OF SAD MEMORY: Mega-Moments in Modern American History
- THE POLITICS OF SAD MEMORY: Mega-Moments in Modern American History
- Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
- Crystal Ball Governor Outlook
- Crystal Ball House Outlook
Aug 2006
- Remember the Alamo
- Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg
- Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg
- The 2006 Midterms: Guilt by Association?
- The Connecticut Senate Spectacle
Jul 2006
- The Mideast War and the Midterm Elections
- Civic Engagement and the Mideast Cauldron
- Mid-Summer Midterm Madness
- Politics: America's Missing Constitutional Link
Jun 2006
- MICRO-WAVE or MACRO-WAVE?
- Election Exceptions
- History's Paragraph for the 2006 Election
May 2006
- June 13 Primary results and analysis
- The Culture of Corruption
Apr 2006
- Who Votes?
- What Were They Thinking?
- International Youth Democracy Summit
Mar 2006
- Senate and Governor 2006 - The Constant is Change
- Congressional Competition: Gone with the Wind
Feb 2006
- Cheney's Quayle-Gate makes 'Feeding Frenzy Hall of Fame'
- Better Watch a District!
- The Congressional Shuffle
- Statehouses Gleam for Democrats in 2006
Jan 2006
- The Presidential Prizefight '08
- 2006 Senate Leans Democratic
- The American Democracy Conference Redux
- The Presidential Prizefight 2008
Dec 2005
- O Frenzy of Frenzies!
- The 2005 American Democracy Conference
Nov 2005
- Bush's Long Road Back
Oct 2005
- The 2005 Off-Off-Year Elections
- Hammer Time Over? A "House of Blues" After 2006?
Sep 2005
- Protect Ya Neck: The Races of 2006
- Hurricane Katrina: Lessons for a Participatory Democracy
- Storm Clouds over 1600
Aug 2005
- The Summer Wind in American Politics
Jul 2005
- The Big Picture for 2006
- Supreme Questions
Jun 2005
- And They're Off!
- They Just Don't Make 'Em Like They Used To
May 2005
- Don't Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections
- House 2006: Can Democrats "Hammer" the GOP Majority?
- 2006 Statehouse Rock
Apr 2005
- Governor 2006: The Democrats' Most Promising Field of Battle?
Mar 2005
- Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable
- Senate 2006: Scratching the Surface of the Sixth-year Itch
- Senate 2006: Status Quo Central?
- White House 2008: The Republicans
Feb 2005
- White House 2008: The Democrats
- So To...SOTU
Nov 2004
- Recount Blues in the Evergreen State?
- A Look Back, A Look Forward
- Republicans Enlarge Senate Majority
- GOP Increase House Numbers
- Four Statehouses Switch Parties
- Bush Captures Second Term
- The Final Predictions
Oct 2004
- Tight as a Tick
- 2004 as the Bizzaro Election of 1916
- Baseball and the 2004 Election
- Alaska Senate 2004
- Colorado Senate 2004
- Florida Senate 2004
- Missouri Senate 2004
- North Carolina Senate 2004
- Oklahoma Senate 2004
- Pennsylvania Senate 2004
- South Carolina Senate 2004
- South Dakota Senate 2004
- Wisoncsin Senate 2004
- Young People: They're registered, but will they vote?
- Louisiana Senate 2004
- So Close and Yet So Far
- The Sprint to the Finish Line
- To Repeat: Debates Matter
- The Brutal Bottom Line
Sep 2004
- The Old College Tie
- It's Over!
- The Debate Debate
- The Labor Day Assessment
- A Grand Old Convention in the Big Ol’ Apple
- Big Apple Breakfast
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- VET-ting the 2004 Ballot
- Republicans: It's OK to vote for us
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
Aug 2004
- Big Apple Breakfast
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- The Big Elephant in the Big Apple
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- Vietnam: Political Apocalypse Now
- The McGreevey Matter
Jul 2004
- Balloons and Confetti a Nominating Convention Make
- Boston Morning Tea
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- Boston Morning Tea
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- Boston Morning Tea
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- Let the Conventions Begin
- Boston Morning Tea
- Low-Carb Convention Wrap
- The Last Hundred Days
- The Brutal Bottom Line
- The Cheney Dilemma
- Veep! Veep! It's Edwards!
Jun 2004
- 2004 as 1980?
- Kerry with Narrow Lead in June
- A Lesson Plan from the Great Communicator
- Kerry Can Win Virginia...But Will He?
- Herseth Wins South Dakota
- For the Historical Record
May 2004
- George W. Bush as Harry S. Truman
Apr 2004
- Specter Almost Lives Up to His Name, Narrowly Avoids Political Death
- Veep! Veep! The Wiley Crystal Ball Wonders Who Will Be Kerry's Road Runner
- It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
- The Three Predictors of the Presidency
Mar 2004
- The 2004 Lineup for Congress and Statehouses
- Kerry's Nader and Bush's Nadir
- Super-Mega-National-All-Over-The-Map Tuesday
- Veep Update! Best Kerry Choice is Evan Bayh
Feb 2004
- Presidential Pool-itics:Swimming in the Veep End
- Conventional Wisdom Watch
- Sabato's Three Laws of Political Motion
- The Mesmerizing Dance of "Mr. Mo Mentum"
Jan 2004
- HATE: The Common DEMnominator
- Iowa: The Instant Analysis
- So Who'll Be the Veep?
Dec 2003
- The Four North Stars of Presidential Politics
Nov 2003
- Executive Decision
Oct 2003
- Competition vs. Division
Sep 2003
- Labor Day - One Year Out
Jul 2003
- The Old College Try: Republican-Style
- The D.C. Primary - An Ignored Piece of the Puzzle
Jun 2003
- The Old College Try
May 2003
- The Home State Hurdle
Apr 2003
- War! Good God Y'all, What's it Good For?
- Review of War and Post World War II Presidents
Feb 2003
- Third Year Testing
Jan 2003
- Eve of the State of the Union
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