Past Columns

The science of Crystal Ball reading is an ever-changing art, and the web site is frequently updated to give you the latest information on the 2008 campaigns. In addition, you can access the text of our e-mail updates. You may also subscribe and get the hot-off-the-press analyses from Larry J. Sabato delivered directly to your inbox.

May 2008

• OBAMA'S VICE-PRESIDENT?
• MCCAIN'S VICE-PRESIDENT?
• OLD MATH, NEW MATH, AND THE DISPUTE OVER THE "POPULAR VOTE"
• THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING REPUBLICAN BASE

Apr 2008

• OBAMA AND SMALL-TOWN AMERICA
• HOW COULD JOHN McCAIN WIN IN NOVEMBER?
• WILL DISAPPOINTED DEMS VOTE FOR MCCAIN?
• THE DEMOCRATIC END GAME:
• SUPERDELEGATE MATH
• WHAT IF DEMOCRATS USED WINNER TAKE ALL?

Mar 2008

• THE LASH OF UNFAIR CRITICISM
• THE CRAPSHOOT OF PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS
• A VIRTUAL TIE:
• THE DEMOCRATIC DOGFIGHT
• THE REAL THREAT TO MCCAIN?

Feb 2008

• VEEP! VEEP!
• DEMOCRATS AND THE POPULAR VOTE
• THE ENTHUSIASM GAP
• SUPER DUPER TUESDAY LIVES UP TO ITS NAME

Jan 2008

• SUPER TUESDAY
• THE NOVEMBER MATCH-UPS, AS SEEN FROM JANUARY
• THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT
• THE PRIMARY TURNOUT BOOM
• CLINTON AS TRUMAN, McCAIN AS LAZARUS, OBAMA-MANIA, HUCKA-BOOM OR BUST, & THE PRESIDENTIAL PLAYERS
• ROOTED IN "HOPE"
• ALL EYES ON THE HAWKEYE STATE

Dec 2007

• CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT
• SENATE SENSIBILITIES
• PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: NOT ALWAYS EASIER THE SECOND TIME

Nov 2007

• NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
• ANOTHER PART OF THE BUSH LEGACY IN QUESTION?
• NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
• HILLARY'S 2006 SENATE RUN: A HARBINGER OF ELECTABILITY?
• 2007 Gubernatorial Contest Outlooks and Virginia General Assembly Update

Oct 2007

• UNIVERSAL NATIONAL SERVICE
• A MISSING CONSTITUTIONAL LINK?
• WRAPPING UP THE NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION
• THE LATEST CALIFORNIA TREND
• PERFECTING THE PRESIDENCY

Sep 2007

• TOWARD A MORE PERFECT CONSTITUTION
• LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON?
• MORE NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
• NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Aug 2007

• A MAP IN FLUX?
• BILL AND HILLARY: JOINED AT THE BASE
• UNTANGLING THE NETROOTS
• PRIDE, PREJUDICE, AND PRESIDENTS

Jul 2007

• 2007 STATEHOUSE ROCK
• SENATE '08 UPDATE
• THE REPUBLICAN RIDDLE

Jun 2007

• BLOOMIE IN THE BALLPARK
• THE HILLARY DILEMMA
• THE SCANDAL-TINGED SIX:
• THE FRESHMAN FIFTEEN

May 2007

• OF ASHES AND SASHES
• The 2007 Kentucky Gubernatorial Derby: It's Fletcher vs. Beshear
• Jerry Falwell and the Politics of Double-Edged Swords
• INVISIBLE PRIMARIES
• More from THE SIXTH YEAR ITCH

Apr 2007

• THE SIXTH YEAR ITCH Hits Shelves
• Crystal Ball Condolences for Virginia Tech
• MIRROR, MIRROR, ON THE WALL
• BRIGHT REFLECTIONS ON THE CRYSTAL BALL

Mar 2007

• THE OUTRAGE OF EARLY VICE PRESIDENTIAL SPECULATION
• ELECTORAL TRENDS WARM SUNBELT, FREEZE FROSTBELT
• The War on Night People
• WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS
• WE WERE MERELY FRESHMEN?

Feb 2007

• STATEHOUSE SIZZLE
• SENATE RACES '08
• Scheduling Insanity
• Part II: The Republicans in the '08 Presidential Race
• The Conservatives' Days of Malaise

Jan 2007

• THE 55TH QUADRENNIAL ORGY BEGINS...
• Crystal Ball House Outlook

Nov 2006

• 9th Annual American Democracy Conference
• Dear Friends,
• Post-Election 2006: Playing the Numbers Game
• Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS
• HOUSE Text for CB Email
• Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS

Oct 2006

• Crystal Ball Table for October 26 Email
• 2006: THE BIG PICTURE
• Crystal Ball House Outlook
• KILLER INSTINCT, KILLER WAVE - GOP Senate in Danger of Capsizing Too
• Template for Final Predictions
• Crystal Ball House Outlook
• A "Deep Blue Sea" in the 2006 Midterms?
• Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
• Crystal Ball Governor Outlook
• OCTOBER SURPRISE! (And a Leadership Demise?)

Sep 2006

• THE LAY OF THE LAND IN 2006: Republicans Could Stay Dry on Higher Ground
• Dumb Questions for the 2008 Presidential Contest
• Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
• ANGRY POLITICS: "Voters Gone Wild" in 2006
• THE POLITICS OF SAD MEMORY: Mega-Moments in Modern American History
• THE POLITICS OF SAD MEMORY: Mega-Moments in Modern American History
• Crystal Ball Senate Outlook
• Crystal Ball Governor Outlook
• Crystal Ball House Outlook

Aug 2006

• Remember the Alamo
• Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg
• Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg
• The 2006 Midterms: Guilt by Association?
• The Connecticut Senate Spectacle

Jul 2006

• The Mideast War and the Midterm Elections
• Civic Engagement and the Mideast Cauldron
• Mid-Summer Midterm Madness
• Politics: America's Missing Constitutional Link

Jun 2006

• MICRO-WAVE or MACRO-WAVE?
• Election Exceptions
• History's Paragraph for the 2006 Election

May 2006

• June 13 Primary results and analysis
• The Culture of Corruption

Apr 2006

• Who Votes?
• What Were They Thinking?
• International Youth Democracy Summit

Mar 2006

• Senate and Governor 2006 - The Constant is Change
• Congressional Competition: Gone with the Wind

Feb 2006

• Cheney's Quayle-Gate makes 'Feeding Frenzy Hall of Fame'
• Better Watch a District!
• The Congressional Shuffle
• Statehouses Gleam for Democrats in 2006

Jan 2006

• The Presidential Prizefight '08
• 2006 Senate Leans Democratic
• The American Democracy Conference Redux
• The Presidential Prizefight 2008

Dec 2005

• O Frenzy of Frenzies!
• The 2005 American Democracy Conference

Nov 2005

• Bush's Long Road Back

Oct 2005

• The 2005 Off-Off-Year Elections
• Hammer Time Over? A "House of Blues" After 2006?

Sep 2005

• Protect Ya Neck: The Races of 2006
• Hurricane Katrina: Lessons for a Participatory Democracy
• Storm Clouds over 1600

Aug 2005

• The Summer Wind in American Politics

Jul 2005

• The Big Picture for 2006
• Supreme Questions

Jun 2005

• And They're Off!
• They Just Don't Make 'Em Like They Used To

May 2005

• Don't Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections
• House 2006: Can Democrats "Hammer" the GOP Majority?
• 2006 Statehouse Rock

Apr 2005

• Governor 2006: The Democrats' Most Promising Field of Battle?

Mar 2005

• Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable
• Senate 2006: Scratching the Surface of the Sixth-year Itch
• Senate 2006: Status Quo Central?
• White House 2008: The Republicans

Feb 2005

• White House 2008: The Democrats
• So To...SOTU

Nov 2004

• Recount Blues in the Evergreen State?
• A Look Back, A Look Forward
• Republicans Enlarge Senate Majority
• GOP Increase House Numbers
• Four Statehouses Switch Parties
• Bush Captures Second Term
• The Final Predictions

Oct 2004

• Tight as a Tick
• 2004 as the Bizzaro Election of 1916
• Baseball and the 2004 Election
• Alaska Senate 2004
• Colorado Senate 2004
• Florida Senate 2004
• Missouri Senate 2004
• North Carolina Senate 2004
• Oklahoma Senate 2004
• Pennsylvania Senate 2004
• South Carolina Senate 2004
• South Dakota Senate 2004
• Wisoncsin Senate 2004
• Young People: They're registered, but will they vote?
• Louisiana Senate 2004
• So Close and Yet So Far
• The Sprint to the Finish Line
• To Repeat: Debates Matter
• The Brutal Bottom Line

Sep 2004

• The Old College Tie
• It's Over!
• The Debate Debate
• The Labor Day Assessment
• A Grand Old Convention in the Big Ol’ Apple
• Big Apple Breakfast
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• VET-ting the 2004 Ballot
• Republicans: It's OK to vote for us
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap

Aug 2004

• Big Apple Breakfast
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• The Big Elephant in the Big Apple
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• Vietnam: Political Apocalypse Now
• The McGreevey Matter

Jul 2004

• Balloons and Confetti a Nominating Convention Make
• Boston Morning Tea
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• Boston Morning Tea
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• Boston Morning Tea
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• Let the Conventions Begin
• Boston Morning Tea
• Low-Carb Convention Wrap
• The Last Hundred Days
• The Brutal Bottom Line
• The Cheney Dilemma
• Veep! Veep! It's Edwards!

Jun 2004

• 2004 as 1980?
• Kerry with Narrow Lead in June
• A Lesson Plan from the Great Communicator
• Kerry Can Win Virginia...But Will He?
• Herseth Wins South Dakota
• For the Historical Record

May 2004

• George W. Bush as Harry S. Truman

Apr 2004

• Specter Almost Lives Up to His Name, Narrowly Avoids Political Death
• Veep! Veep! The Wiley Crystal Ball Wonders Who Will Be Kerry's Road Runner
• It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
• The Three Predictors of the Presidency

Mar 2004

• The 2004 Lineup for Congress and Statehouses
• Kerry's Nader and Bush's Nadir
• Super-Mega-National-All-Over-The-Map Tuesday
• Veep Update! Best Kerry Choice is Evan Bayh

Feb 2004

• Presidential Pool-itics:Swimming in the Veep End
• Conventional Wisdom Watch
• Sabato's Three Laws of Political Motion
• The Mesmerizing Dance of "Mr. Mo Mentum"

Jan 2004

• HATE: The Common DEMnominator
• Iowa: The Instant Analysis
• So Who'll Be the Veep?

Dec 2003

• The Four North Stars of Presidential Politics

Nov 2003

• Executive Decision

Oct 2003

• Competition vs. Division

Sep 2003

• Labor Day - One Year Out

Jul 2003

• The Old College Try: Republican-Style
• The D.C. Primary - An Ignored Piece of the Puzzle

Jun 2003

• The Old College Try

May 2003

• The Home State Hurdle

Apr 2003

• War! Good God Y'all, What's it Good For?
• Review of War and Post World War II Presidents

Feb 2003

• Third Year Testing

Jan 2003

• Eve of the State of the Union