Sabato's Crystal Ball

California (47) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Loretta Sanchez, incumbent

Republican candidate: Van Tran, state Delegate

Recent Updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: September 28, 2010

Sunny Orange County gears up for the 2010 House race with Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez at the helm again. Including her first win in 2002, Sanchez has collected more than 60 percent of the vote in each of her elections and thus has not exactly experienced real competition yet. But Republican Assemblyman Van Tran and former marine pilot Quang Pham are looking to give Sanchez a run for her money. The 47th District has a historically strong tendency to vote for Republican presidential candidates and governors—though the trend was broken by a landslide 23 percent Obama victory over McCain in 2008. And the fact that the district holds a slight voter registration advantage for Democrats also appears promising for the incumbent.

Right now, Tran stands in front of Pham and is the Republican primary favorite, holding a $160k fundraising advantage. If you are a Republican in the OC, it’s looking better to jump on the Van Train before it is too late. But unseating the popular incumbent in the general election will require much more than a decent fundraising effort; this race is Likely Democratic.