Sabato's Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Table for October 26 Email

How High the Midterm Wave?

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 26th, 2006

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Table 1. How High the Midterm Wave?

Year President HOUSE

Gain or Loss
SENATE

Gain or Loss
Size of Wave For or Against President
1946 Truman (D) -55 -12 High Against
1950* Truman (D) -29 -6 Medium Against
1954 Eisenhower (R) -18 -1 Low Against
1958* Eisenhower (R) -48 -13 High Against
1962 Kennedy (D) -4 +3 Low Neutral/For
1966* Johnson (D) -47 -4 High Against
1970 Nixon (R) -12 +2 Low Neutral/Against
1974* Ford (R) -48 -5 High Against
1978 Carter (D) -15 -3 Low Against
1982 Reagan (R) -26 +1 Medium Against
1986* Reagan (R) -5 -8 Medium Against
1990 Bush (R) -9 -1 Low Neutral/Against
1992 Clinton (D) -52 -9 High Against
1996* Clinton (D) +5 0 Low For
2002 Bush (R) +6 +2 Low For
2006* Bush (R) -20 plus -4 to -6 Medium or High Against

* Indicates a “Sixth-Year Election.” 2006 losses based on current Crystal Ball projections.