Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics December 21st, 2010

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The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.

8:41 AM Dec 17th: Disappointed that ‘best quotes of ’10’ lists have left out: “The rent is too damn high.” An elegant, inarguable statement of fact.

9:28 AM Dec 17th: On paper Ds need to pick up +25 House seats to regain control in 2012. But this ignores effects of reapportionment/redistricting.

9:32 AM Dec 17th: Census #s (Tu) will show net gain from Blue to Red states. Big R gains in ’10 mean Rs control redrawing 195 House districts to Ds 49.

9:38 AM Dec 17th: Complicated calculus, different in each state, but more weak Rs will be strengthened than weak Ds, more new R districts than D created.

9:39 AM Dec 17th: Conclusion: +25 D is a mirage.

11:34 AM Dec 19th: Of 8 Rs backing DADT, 6 predictable. Surprises: Ensign(NV) & Burr(NC). Ensign’s scandal partial explanation. Burr just reelected handily.

11:36 AM Dec 19th: 1st term: Burr down-the-line conservative. 2nd term, now more secure, will he stray from party line more often? Smart, thoughtful guy.

11:39 AM Dec 19th: Burr was consistently underestimated by Beltway cognoscenti in his ’10 reelection race. Toss-up? Try landslide. Burr is one to watch.

11:41 AM Dec 19th: Redistricting: All a-quiver about 12/21 Census state nos. Details vital–but big-picture trends obvious. Same since 1960.

11:43 AM Dec 19th: POWER FLOWS: Frostbelt to Sunbelt. North to South & West. Cities & rural to suburbs & exurbs. Some very D Electoral Votes to very R EVs.

12:06 PM Dec 19th: LisaM and #DADT: 1st clear effect of write-in reelect. She is free to stray, within AK limits,may choose to run in ’16 as Ind-R, skip prim.

12:46 PM Dec 19th: Post-#DADT: Will colleges now lift whatever restrictions on military recruiters remain? Time to restore this career to place of honor.

3:23 PM Dec 19th: Profile in Courage: Sen. Joe Manchin(D-WV) skips #DADT & #DREAM Act votes for WV Christmas party. Um, alienate both sides?

6:04 PM Dec 19th: On this day in 1843, Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol” was published in England. My favorite. Wish we could get more stingy ppl to read it.

6:14 PM Dec 19th: On 12/19/74 Nelson Rockefeller was sworn in as VP. Never in U.S. history was a VP ditched so quickly. Ford dropped him from R ticket 11/75.

6:55 PM Dec 19th: This lame-duck session got a leg transplant. Remarkable. Redefines what is possible in post-election Congress.

7:02 PM Dec 19th: R gains in Jan. part of equation. But old Congress ‘saved up’ controversial issues to put them past election. New tradition for lame-duck?

11:24 AM Dec 20th: BAYOU HOUSE NOW GOP: Make that 21 state legislative bodies the GOP won in ’10. Party-switches put Rs in control of LA House.