Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tow2010100703/
Export date: Sat Oct 21 6:43:39 2017 / +0000 GMT

Tweets of the Week







The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here 1.








1:15 PM Oct 2nd: Some GOP leaders need a refresher course in basic campaign strategy. Predicting R House pickups of +60, +80, +100 is just plain dumb.

1:17 PM Oct 2nd: (1) It isn't going to happen;(2) It induces overconfidence;(3) If Rs win a narrow majority or just fall short, big gains look like a loss.

1:18 PM Oct 2nd: You'd think after all this time, people would've caught onto the polling game & wouldn't take polls so seriously. And you'd be wrong.

1:19 PM Oct 2nd: Let me word the questions, pick the sample, & interpret the results, and I'll get you any answers you want.

1:58 PM Oct 3rd: Finally, cold AK & hot FL have something in common: A "centrist" independent Senate candidate getting squeezed between R & D

1:59 PM Oct 3rd: Don't be surprised if they end up the same way.

9:50 AM Oct 4th: If there's a game-changer B4 E-Day, it's terrorism, not scandal. The former can transform the playing field; the latter affects a few races.

9:55 AM Oct 4th: Otherwise, ignore most press stories about 'changing dynamics'. Fundamentals for '10 are set. Reporters jumpy in Oct. Every jot exaggerated.

10:03 AM Oct 4th: Walter Lippmann had press pegged in 1922: "The beam of a searchlight that moves restlessly about." Change=press constant; stability=reality.

10:24 AM Oct 4th: What the press covers & thinks important, and how people actually vote, are often two very different things.

11:14 AM Oct 4th: In GOV races where incumbent is RETIRING & UNPOPULAR, job approval for outgoing GOV is strong indicator of Nov. result, i.e., party switch.

11:18 AM Oct 4th: Ex: See MI, NM, OR, PA, WI--all helping Rs. In RI, same factor may be helping D. Exceptions: CO where GOP split has forfeited race.

11:20 AM Oct 4th: Other exceptions: NV, where R nominee Sandoval beat incumbent R Gibbons in primary. NY, where Paterson's low ratings haven't hurt Cuomo.

11:53 AM Oct 5th: Dizzy from reading the contradictory polls? You should be. Everything's exaggerated in the last month. Individual races change, not basics.

11:57 AM Oct 5th: Gallup LV #s (+13-+18R) wrong, too high. Beltway CW about D surge wrong (less enthused Dems returning home, natural in final month).

11:58 AM Oct 5th: At the Crystal Ball (www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ 2) we've seen nothing to cause us to revise our PRE-LABOR DAY numbers.

12:00 PM Oct 5th: Crystal Ball will tweak predicts near to election. Small # of close individual races can & will flip, but overall pattern is/has been set.
Links:
  1. http://twitter.com/larrysabato
  2. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
Post date: 2010-10-07 00:01:11
Post date GMT: 2010-10-07 04:01:11


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