Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tow2010091603/
Export date: Wed Dec 13 7:24:50 2017 / +0000 GMT

Tweets of the Week







This week, the Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week takes a special look back at the highlights of the busy week in politics from the perspectives of University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato 1 and Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood 2.







@IsaacWood on 11:08 AM Sep 10th: NRCC's 11 district ad blitz--TOSS-UPS: AL-02 AZ-01 FL-02 TX-17 VA-05 WI-07 LEANS D: CA-11 IN-02 KY-06 LEANS R: MS-01 TN-08

@IsaacWood on 11:10 AM Sep 10th: Of the 11 districts NRCC targeting, just 2 are open seats. Seem confident about open seat wins. Gunning for incumbents.

@IsaacWood on 11:59 AM Sep 10th: 2 interpretations of NRCC ads: Targeting incumbents b/c confident in open seats OR worried by incumbents' cash advantage.

@LarrySabato on 10:19 PM Sep 10th: 538 blog at New York Times, today's prediction: +45-50 R seats in House. Crystal Ball prediction from 9/2: +47 R. Good to have company.

@LarrySabato on 10:22 PM Sep 10th: All predicts must be refined as election day approaches. Overall conditions & individual districts can change a bit. But '10 direction clear

@LarrySabato on 10:35 PM Sep 10th: Top 3 competitive contests on 9/14 (blessedly, last major '10 primary day): DE SEN(R), NH SEN(R), DC Mayor(D). DE SEN is headliner.

@LarrySabato on 10:39 PM Sep 10th: Unusual Dem cheers for Sen. Jim DeMint & Sarah Palin thx to their backing of Christine O'Donnell(R-DE), far weaker potential SEN nominee.

@LarrySabato on 9:27 AM Sep 11th: Who isn't sad on 9/11, re-living shock & horror? Only 2 other events in modern history are comparable in public memory: 11/22/63 & 12/7/41.

@LarrySabato on 9:36 AM Sep 11th: Most media did superb job on 9/11 & subsequent anniversaries. Contrast with disgraceful coverage of nutcase, loony-tune FL "Koran" preacher.

@LarrySabato on 9:40 AM Sep 11th: USA has pop of 300m+. At least 1 million are nuts. All have been encouraged to seek fame via outrageous actions, thx to FL feeding frenzy.

@LarrySabato on 9:42 AM Sep 11th: Young'uns in media should read about responsible press behavior during WWII. Press took national interest into account before publishing.

@LarrySabato on 9:43 AM Sep 11th: Censorship? Media censor every day in hundreds of ways. They choose to cover or not to cover. It's called news judgment.

@LarrySabato on 11:16 AM Sep 13th: Mike Castle CANNOT run as Independent if he loses Tues night in DE SEN-R primary. Deadline was 9/1. Write-in deadline: Sept. 30.

@LarrySabato on 3:54 PM Sep 13th: Fascinating that the party in trouble (D) has little internal anti-incumbent sentiment while the resurgent party (R) has a ton of it.

@IsaacWood on 4:15 PM Sep 13th: What funding gap? GOP outspends Dems $20M to $13M over past 6 weeks in key Senate and House races http://nyti.ms/a2K3UY 3

@IsaacWood on 3:42 PM Sep 14th: After tonight the 2010 primary season will be officially over... except for Hawaii's dull primaries this Saturday.

@IsaacWood on 4:29 PM Sep 14th: The 7 House primaries I'll be watching extra-closely tonight: NH-01 NH-02 DE-AL MD-01 MA-10 NY-01 NY-23

@IsaacWood on 7:25 PM Sep 14th: Only obviously endangered incumbents tonight are all Democrats: Lynch in MA-09, Rangel in NY-15, & Maloney in NY-14.

@IsaacWood on 7:46 PM Sep 14th: Dems want to face Guinta in NH-01 instead of Mahoney. Guinta had troubled start to his primary bid, was tied to a bar fight.

@IsaacWood on 7:47 PM Sep 14th: Irony of Guinta situation is NRCC originally recruited him to run in NH-01, then Dems backed him by tearing down Mahoney.

@IsaacWood on 7:49 PM Sep 14th: Mahoney running 3rd in NH-01 now (but only 12% in). 2nd belongs to Rich Ashooh, who was backed by NH Union-Leader newspaper.

@IsaacWood on 8:44 PM Sep 14th: Would you vote for this man? MA-10 Dem candidate William Keating chased down a purse-snatcher Sunday. Losing w/ 5% in today.

@IsaacWood on 8:51 PM Sep 14th: With 4% in in MD-01, 2008 GOP nominee Andy Harris cruising over Rob Fisher, 69-31. Good news for GOP's bid vs. Kratovil.

@IsaacWood on 8:59 PM Sep 14th: NRCC already gloating about Harris victory over Fisher in MD-01. We rate this race LEANS R. Tough rematch for Kratovil.

@IsaacWood on 9:05 PM Sep 14th: Makes you wonder: Would Mike Castle have won renomination to the House? Challenged at all? Both races are statewide...

@LarrySabato on 9:21 PM Sep 14th: Congrats, GOP Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell. Congrats, Senator-elect Chris Coons (D-DE).

@LarrySabato on 9:21 PM Sep 14th: The Crystal Ball is immediately lowering its estimate of GOP Senate gains from +8-9 down to +7-8. Due to Delaware result.

@LarrySabato on 9:23 PM Sep 14th: Theoretically possible for GOP to run table and take Senate, but DE result tremendous blow to R hopes. Best result for Ds since Angle.

@IsaacWood on 9:41 PM Sep 14th: DE GOP will likely be disappointed statewide this year. DE-SEN will drag down DE-AL nominee (looks to be Urquhart who was weaker anyway).

@IsaacWood on 9:41 PM Sep 14th: Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch of MA-09, perhaps the most-endangered incumbent of the night, escapes with 65-35 victory.

@IsaacWood on 9:49 PM Sep 14th: GOP primary in MA-10 called for Jeff Perry, state legislator who was attacked for fake diploma and strip-search scandal.

@LarrySabato on 10:14 PM Sep 14th: Castle won 12 elections in DE. The 13th was very unlucky for him & GOP.

@LarrySabato on 10:17 PM Sep 14th: How much backlash in senior R circles will there be for Jim DeMint & Sarah Palin? They cost Rs a Senate seat, maybe Senate control.

@IsaacWood on 10:22 PM Sep 14th: 3-way NY-01 GOP race going establishment's way. Party-backed Altschuler 47%, Limbaugh-backed Demos 31%, Pres. Nixon grandson Cox 23%

@IsaacWood on 10:29 PM Sep 14th: Trouble for GOP in NY-23 (again)? Doug Hoffman has Conservative Party line (again), vowed to run w/ or w/o GOP nom (again).

@IsaacWood on 10:37 PM Sep 14th: MA-10 match-up set. Purse-snatcher-catcher/Dem nominee Bill Keating to face GOP's Jeff Perry in open seat race. LEANS D.

@IsaacWood on 10:41 PM Sep 14th: 10% of precincts in for both NY-14 and NY-15. Carolyn Maloney up 85-15, Charlie Rangel up 46-23. They both look OK.

@IsaacWood on 10:47 PM Sep 14th: Did the DCCC attacks against Mahoney in NH-01 work? Looks like two-way GOP race between ex-mayor Guinta and Union Leader-endorsed Ashooh.

@IsaacWood on 11:12 PM Sep 14th: MTV Real World's Sean Duffy wins GOP nomination in WI-7. Will be a TOSS-UP open seat race vs. Dem nominee Julie Lassa

@IsaacWood on 11:14 PM Sep 14th: Tonight MTV Real World cast members are only 1 for 2. Duffy wins in WI-07 but Kevin Powell loses longshot NY-10 bid.

@LarrySabato on 9:11 AM Sep 15th: Primary season over (save HI, Sat.). 3 incumbents in HI will be renominated. Final tally: 417 Sens. & Reps. renominated, 7 lost (98% won).

@LarrySabato on 9:13 AM Sep 15th: Yes, a few mighty upsets + some won primary with lower-than-usual % + some trying 4 higher office defeated. But the numbers are the numbers.

@LarrySabato on 9:15 AM Sep 15th: A slew of incumbent defeats will come Nov. 2, vast majority Ds. But, Tea party notwithstanding, about 90% overall will win new terms.

@LarrySabato on 9:16 AM Sep 15th: Best analogy to DE SEN: Goldwater '64. GOP base knew he couldn't win but wanted to send message. Establishment out, we the people in charge.
Links:
  1. http://twitter.com/larrysabato
  2. http://twitter.com/isaacwood
  3. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/13/us/politics/13ad s.html?_r=3&hp
Post date: 2010-09-16 00:10:23
Post date GMT: 2010-09-16 04:10:23


Export date: Wed Dec 13 7:24:50 2017 / +0000 GMT
This page was exported from Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball [ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball ]
Export of Post and Page has been powered by [ Universal Post Manager ] plugin from www.ProfProjects.com