Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato and Isaac Wood, U.Va. Center for Politics September 16th, 2010

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This week, the Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week takes a special look back at the highlights of the busy week in politics from the perspectives of University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood.

@IsaacWood on 11:08 AM Sep 10th: NRCC’s 11 district ad blitz–TOSS-UPS: AL-02 AZ-01 FL-02 TX-17 VA-05 WI-07 LEANS D: CA-11 IN-02 KY-06 LEANS R: MS-01 TN-08

@IsaacWood on 11:10 AM Sep 10th: Of the 11 districts NRCC targeting, just 2 are open seats. Seem confident about open seat wins. Gunning for incumbents.

@IsaacWood on 11:59 AM Sep 10th: 2 interpretations of NRCC ads: Targeting incumbents b/c confident in open seats OR worried by incumbents’ cash advantage.

@LarrySabato on 10:19 PM Sep 10th: 538 blog at New York Times, today’s prediction: +45-50 R seats in House. Crystal Ball prediction from 9/2: +47 R. Good to have company.

@LarrySabato on 10:22 PM Sep 10th: All predicts must be refined as election day approaches. Overall conditions & individual districts can change a bit. But ’10 direction clear

@LarrySabato on 10:35 PM Sep 10th: Top 3 competitive contests on 9/14 (blessedly, last major ’10 primary day): DE SEN(R), NH SEN(R), DC Mayor(D). DE SEN is headliner.

@LarrySabato on 10:39 PM Sep 10th: Unusual Dem cheers for Sen. Jim DeMint & Sarah Palin thx to their backing of Christine O’Donnell(R-DE), far weaker potential SEN nominee.

@LarrySabato on 9:27 AM Sep 11th: Who isn’t sad on 9/11, re-living shock & horror? Only 2 other events in modern history are comparable in public memory: 11/22/63 & 12/7/41.

@LarrySabato on 9:36 AM Sep 11th: Most media did superb job on 9/11 & subsequent anniversaries. Contrast with disgraceful coverage of nutcase, loony-tune FL “Koran” preacher.

@LarrySabato on 9:40 AM Sep 11th: USA has pop of 300m+. At least 1 million are nuts. All have been encouraged to seek fame via outrageous actions, thx to FL feeding frenzy.

@LarrySabato on 9:42 AM Sep 11th: Young’uns in media should read about responsible press behavior during WWII. Press took national interest into account before publishing.

@LarrySabato on 9:43 AM Sep 11th: Censorship? Media censor every day in hundreds of ways. They choose to cover or not to cover. It’s called news judgment.

@LarrySabato on 11:16 AM Sep 13th: Mike Castle CANNOT run as Independent if he loses Tues night in DE SEN-R primary. Deadline was 9/1. Write-in deadline: Sept. 30.

@LarrySabato on 3:54 PM Sep 13th: Fascinating that the party in trouble (D) has little internal anti-incumbent sentiment while the resurgent party (R) has a ton of it.

@IsaacWood on 4:15 PM Sep 13th: What funding gap? GOP outspends Dems $20M to $13M over past 6 weeks in key Senate and House races http://nyti.ms/a2K3UY

@IsaacWood on 3:42 PM Sep 14th: After tonight the 2010 primary season will be officially over… except for Hawaii’s dull primaries this Saturday.

@IsaacWood on 4:29 PM Sep 14th: The 7 House primaries I’ll be watching extra-closely tonight: NH-01 NH-02 DE-AL MD-01 MA-10 NY-01 NY-23

@IsaacWood on 7:25 PM Sep 14th: Only obviously endangered incumbents tonight are all Democrats: Lynch in MA-09, Rangel in NY-15, & Maloney in NY-14.

@IsaacWood on 7:46 PM Sep 14th: Dems want to face Guinta in NH-01 instead of Mahoney. Guinta had troubled start to his primary bid, was tied to a bar fight.

@IsaacWood on 7:47 PM Sep 14th: Irony of Guinta situation is NRCC originally recruited him to run in NH-01, then Dems backed him by tearing down Mahoney.

@IsaacWood on 7:49 PM Sep 14th: Mahoney running 3rd in NH-01 now (but only 12% in). 2nd belongs to Rich Ashooh, who was backed by NH Union-Leader newspaper.

@IsaacWood on 8:44 PM Sep 14th: Would you vote for this man? MA-10 Dem candidate William Keating chased down a purse-snatcher Sunday. Losing w/ 5% in today.

@IsaacWood on 8:51 PM Sep 14th: With 4% in in MD-01, 2008 GOP nominee Andy Harris cruising over Rob Fisher, 69-31. Good news for GOP’s bid vs. Kratovil.

@IsaacWood on 8:59 PM Sep 14th: NRCC already gloating about Harris victory over Fisher in MD-01. We rate this race LEANS R. Tough rematch for Kratovil.

@IsaacWood on 9:05 PM Sep 14th: Makes you wonder: Would Mike Castle have won renomination to the House? Challenged at all? Both races are statewide…

@LarrySabato on 9:21 PM Sep 14th: Congrats, GOP Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell. Congrats, Senator-elect Chris Coons (D-DE).

@LarrySabato on 9:21 PM Sep 14th: The Crystal Ball is immediately lowering its estimate of GOP Senate gains from +8-9 down to +7-8. Due to Delaware result.

@LarrySabato on 9:23 PM Sep 14th: Theoretically possible for GOP to run table and take Senate, but DE result tremendous blow to R hopes. Best result for Ds since Angle.

@IsaacWood on 9:41 PM Sep 14th: DE GOP will likely be disappointed statewide this year. DE-SEN will drag down DE-AL nominee (looks to be Urquhart who was weaker anyway).

@IsaacWood on 9:41 PM Sep 14th: Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch of MA-09, perhaps the most-endangered incumbent of the night, escapes with 65-35 victory.

@IsaacWood on 9:49 PM Sep 14th: GOP primary in MA-10 called for Jeff Perry, state legislator who was attacked for fake diploma and strip-search scandal.

@LarrySabato on 10:14 PM Sep 14th: Castle won 12 elections in DE. The 13th was very unlucky for him & GOP.

@LarrySabato on 10:17 PM Sep 14th: How much backlash in senior R circles will there be for Jim DeMint & Sarah Palin? They cost Rs a Senate seat, maybe Senate control.

@IsaacWood on 10:22 PM Sep 14th: 3-way NY-01 GOP race going establishment’s way. Party-backed Altschuler 47%, Limbaugh-backed Demos 31%, Pres. Nixon grandson Cox 23%

@IsaacWood on 10:29 PM Sep 14th: Trouble for GOP in NY-23 (again)? Doug Hoffman has Conservative Party line (again), vowed to run w/ or w/o GOP nom (again).

@IsaacWood on 10:37 PM Sep 14th: MA-10 match-up set. Purse-snatcher-catcher/Dem nominee Bill Keating to face GOP’s Jeff Perry in open seat race. LEANS D.

@IsaacWood on 10:41 PM Sep 14th: 10% of precincts in for both NY-14 and NY-15. Carolyn Maloney up 85-15, Charlie Rangel up 46-23. They both look OK.

@IsaacWood on 10:47 PM Sep 14th: Did the DCCC attacks against Mahoney in NH-01 work? Looks like two-way GOP race between ex-mayor Guinta and Union Leader-endorsed Ashooh.

@IsaacWood on 11:12 PM Sep 14th: MTV Real World’s Sean Duffy wins GOP nomination in WI-7. Will be a TOSS-UP open seat race vs. Dem nominee Julie Lassa

@IsaacWood on 11:14 PM Sep 14th: Tonight MTV Real World cast members are only 1 for 2. Duffy wins in WI-07 but Kevin Powell loses longshot NY-10 bid.

@LarrySabato on 9:11 AM Sep 15th: Primary season over (save HI, Sat.). 3 incumbents in HI will be renominated. Final tally: 417 Sens. & Reps. renominated, 7 lost (98% won).

@LarrySabato on 9:13 AM Sep 15th: Yes, a few mighty upsets + some won primary with lower-than-usual % + some trying 4 higher office defeated. But the numbers are the numbers.

@LarrySabato on 9:15 AM Sep 15th: A slew of incumbent defeats will come Nov. 2, vast majority Ds. But, Tea party notwithstanding, about 90% overall will win new terms.

@LarrySabato on 9:16 AM Sep 15th: Best analogy to DE SEN: Goldwater ’64. GOP base knew he couldn’t win but wanted to send message. Establishment out, we the people in charge.