Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics September 9th, 2010

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The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.

8:49 PM Sep 5th: We always overdo comparisons between elections. They’re all unique. 2010 is being widely compared to 3 recent midterms: 1982, 1994, 2006.

8:53 PM Sep 5th: Link ’94 & ’06: until Oct, most Ds & Rs didn’t believe House could switch. This helped out-party. Not enuf time for in-party to react.

8:55 PM Sep 5th: But in ’10, Dems have twice the notice. Can time + more $ give Ds chance to shave a dozen seats from Rs & save House? Or is cake too baked?

9:30 AM Sep 6th: Many queries: Could Ds focus $$$ on enuf seats to pull back +47R to, say, mid-30sR and keep control. Possible. Also possible +R could go up

9:33 AM Sep 6th: Fallback D position: Keep House close. If Ds lose House in ’10, a better economy & resurgent Obama could coattail Ds back into ’12 majority

9:35 AM Sep 6th: Just possible that we are in another 1946-1954, when both houses see-sawed between Ds & Rs 4 times.

9:36 AM Sep 6th: Or maybe Obama will be like Clinton: 2 yrs of full D control, 6 yrs of R control of Congress. Or maybe Obama is 1-term Carter. Or maybe…

9:38 AM Sep 6th: The further into the future you go, the wilder are the scenarios. All seem plausible under certain, unknowable conditions.

11:51 PM Sep 7th: Obsession w/ups &downs of Gallup generic ballot amusing. Rational explanations are tortured. Truth: Mainly statistical noise.