Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tow2010081204/
Export date: Mon Dec 11 19:09:19 2017 / +0000 GMT

Tweets of the Week







The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here 1.






8:01 PM Aug 5th: TN GOV on script tonight. As expected Bill Haslam(R) wins, faces Mike McWherter(D). Haslam will be next GOV, 1 of 3-4 most likely R pickups.

8:03 PM Aug 5th: As usual, next GOP GOV corps will have a lot more moderates in it than congressional R caucus. Haslam(R-TN) & Snyder(R-MI) good examples.

9:10 PM Aug 7th: So much psychological drama associated with one's birthday. Another example of the tyranny of numbers. Age should be an unlisted number.

11:16 AM Aug 8th: Timing is everything in sex & politics. R Paul(KY), D Coats(IN) & D Vitter(LA) probably would have lost in '06. GOP wave of '10=SEN win.

5:08 PM Aug 8th: Almost everyone alive in '74 remembers this was the day Nixon announced his resignation--exactly 6 yrs after he won the '68 GOP nomination.

5:11 PM Aug 8th: 3rd Nixon connection to 8/8: Exactly 1 yr B4 Nixon resigned, VP Spiro Agnew declared that he had never taken kickbacks & would never resign.

9:52 AM Aug 9th: Only 4 emotions matter in politics: Love, Hope, Hate, Fear. In most years, hate & fear are far more powerful than love & hope.

9:53 AM Aug 9th: Now you are equipped to analyze 90% of the TV ads you are seeing in the 2010 campaigns.

12:21 PM Aug 9th: Odd: 3 different ppl have mentioned today they are 'nervous' about POTUS in Dallas. But 47 yrs later, Big D is as safe as anyplace for Prez.

12:23 PM Aug 9th: Dallas suffered unfairly from JFK killing. 200,000+ turned out in Big D 11/22/63 to cheer Jack & Jackie, only one (a few?) had other ideas.

10:17 AM Aug 10th: Alaska is tough place to fly, at least in small planes. Many recall deaths of Majority Ldr Hale Boggs & Cong. Nick Begich(D-AK) in Oct.'72.

10:18 AM Aug 10th: Begich was reelected posthumously in Nov.'72, over a fellow named Don Young(R). But Young got the seat in a winter special '73, still in.

10:20 AM Aug 10th: Then Nick Begich's son, Mark Begich(D), beat Sen. Ted Stevens(R) in '08. Same names pop up frequently in some states.

8:42 PM Aug 10th: Roy Barnes has got to be hoping Deal wins. If so, he can clean up in metro Atlanta. Tougher with Handel.

8:51 PM Aug 10th: Speaking of GA, devastating portrait of Newt Gingrich in Esquire. Wife #2 unloads. Just have a hard time seeing how Newt gets GOP POTUS nod.

8:56 PM Aug 10th: Nonsequitor: Did anybody else notice a couple lines in Charlie Rangel's soliloquy were similar to Nixon's "I Am Not A Crook" speech?

9:12 PM Aug 10th: CT SEN R: As expected Linda McMahon beating Rob Simmons handily. CT GOV: Malloy over Lamont, Foley over Fedele, with over fifth in.

9:37 PM Aug 10th: If GA GOV had ended up Handel vs Barnes, Crystal Ball rating would have been Leans R. Deal is another story. Toss-Up.

9:41 PM Aug 10th: CT GOV: Dems apparently picking Malloy, smarter choice. If Foley is R, I call it Lean D in Nov. 20-year dry spell for Dems could come to end

9:43 PM Aug 10th: CO SEN: 57% in, Bennet up handily, 54-46%. Buck up 51-49 over Norton. Will be toss-up barnburner all the way to Nov.

9:44 PM Aug 10th: CO GOV R: Half in, Maes leading McInnis 52-48. If Maes, John Hickenlooper(D) heavy favorite. McInnis might bow out, Maes won't. Both deadly.

10:24 PM Aug 10th: This is arguably best primary night Dems have had in '10. Barnes now 50-50 in GA GOV, GOP a mess in CO GOV, could help Bennet in SEN.

10:27 PM Aug 10th: Plus Dems got strongest GOV nominee in CT, now Leans D for Nov. CT SEN still Leans D (at least). & I'm inclined to say MN GOV Leans D in Nov

11:03 PM Aug 10th: If Deal holds on in GA GOP GOV, we can also eliminate another non-trend that has gained currency--that Congressmen can't get GOV in '10.

11:10 PM Aug 10th: Over 20 yrs, 2 (1.8 exactly) Reps/Sens have won governorships each election, with 4 (3.8) losing. In 2010 3-4 will win GOV, 5 or 6 won't.

11:48 AM Aug 11th: Crystal Ball's latest re-nomination count as of today: SENATE--13 incumbent wins, 2 losses (87%), HOUSE--286 incumbent wins, 4 losses (99%)
Links:
  1. http://twitter.com/larrysabato
Post date: 2010-08-12 00:01:29
Post date GMT: 2010-08-12 04:01:29


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