Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics July 29th, 2010

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The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.

11:03 AM Jul 25th: 100 (long) days to go until Nov. 2. Overall drift seems clear–substantial R gains top to bottom. But CW is often wrong on individual races.

11:05 AM Jul 25th: Scandal, other events intervene. Most recent example: who could have forseen McInnis plagiarism in CO GOV?

8:55 AM Jul 26th: New Mason-Dixon confirms Crystal Ball’s early decision to tip Senate seat R. Roy Blunt(R) leads Robin Carnahan(D) by 6%. Bond seat stays R.

8:57 AM Jul 26th: Other than GOV disaster in CO, GOP may face greatest challenge in FL, where party rifts now endanger both GOV & SEN seats. Early yet.

12:32 PM Jul 26th: FDR ran against Hoover over & over. It worked. Reagan & Bush41 did same against Carter. Mainly worked. Can Obama run against Dubya again?

12:33 PM Jul 26th: Easy prediction: My D tweeps will say YES! My R tweeps will say NO! Crystal Ball not needed for this one…

10:11 PM Jul 27th: Upset brewing for D GOV-OK? Lt. Gov. Jari Askins ahead of AG Drew Edmondson 51-49% w/85% in. All recent polls favored Edmondson.

10:14 PM Jul 27th: If Askins wins, OK will be 4th all-woman GOV race in US history. Mary Fallin R nominee. NM GOV 2010: Diane Denish(D) v. Susana Martinez(R).

10:16 PM Jul 27th: Other 2 all-woman GOV: 1986 NE Kay Orr(R) v. Helen Boosalis(D), Orr won. 2002 HI Linda Lingle(R) v. Mazie Hirono(D).Lingle won, still serves

10:17 PM Jul 27th: Fallin favored in OK 4 Nov. Toss-up in NM. But if Martinez wins, all four all-woman GOV match-ups in US history will have been won by GOP.

3:05 PM Jul 28th: Remember spring’s “anti-incumbent” story? As of today, 257 House & Senate members have won re-nomination, just 5 lost (1.9%).

3:07 PM Jul 28th: Yes, there may be a few more incumbent defeats in primaries, but only on 11/2 will many incumbents fall–though 90% on ballot may win.