Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics December 3rd, 2009

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The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.


1:32 PM Nov 22nd: To be in Rome is to be surrounded by intense politics.Quadafi and Chavez were in the hotel next to mine for a UN confab on hunger. No comment.

1:35 PM Nov 22nd: Superb U.S. Embassy staff arranged for lectures at colleges and meetings with pols. Fascination with Obama continues, but impatience has come.

1:38 PM Nov 22nd: Just as in the U.S., promises have met reality. All crowds laughed at each mention of (1) Obama’s Nobel; and (2) Sarah Palin. Bipartisan :).

9:04 PM Nov 23rd: The rush to be first to spot a ‘trend’ leads analysts astray. Rep. Dennis Moore(D-KS) retires, and media jump to declare a season of D byes.

9:16 PM Nov 23rd: The movement in TX GOV today is another example, in the other direction. Houston Mayor Bill White(D) may be jumping in, replacing a weaker D.

9:20 PM Nov 23rd: Background is media buzz about how TX will turn D because of Hispanic vote. Yes, it will– but sometime between 2020 and 2050. It’s 2009.

12:18 PM Nov 25th: New Rasmussen survey shows Lou Dobbs(I) getting 12-14 percent in various 3-way 2012 POTUS match-ups. That’s close to ’92 Ross Perot level (19 percent).

12:28 PM Nov 25th: If polls 3 years away were accurate, Nixon would have lost in ’72, Carter would have won in ’80, and Bush Sr. was a ’92 lock, among other ex.

1:18 PM Nov 25th: Political Wire and WaPo reporting that Terry McAuliffe is already testing the waters for VA GOV 2013. Yep, before Bob McDonnell is even sworn in.

5:24 PM Nov 30th: Mike Huckabee’s ‘Willie Horton’ moment–his Arkansas GOV pardoning of the Tacoma WA cop killer–has severely damaged his 2012 POTUS chances.

5:25 PM Nov 30th: Devastating ads would be aired against Huck by GOP rivals. Logical decision for Huckabee: Don’t run at all.

5:26 PM Nov 30th: Weak GOP field so far, if Huck out: Romney, Pawlenty, maybe Palin. Someone may come roaring out of 2010 midterms, new GOP GOV or SEN.

5:28 PM Nov 30th: But this ‘savior’ would have to start running for POTUS instantly. How do you justify that to your state voters that just made you GOV or SEN?