Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Six Most Overrated Races of 2014

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal Ball February 6th, 2014

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As previously announced, U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. With Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, this week’s column highlights six races getting a lot of media limelight right now that probably shouldn’t by November, particularly the Kentucky Senate and Texas gubernatorial contests. — The Editors

With the midterm election three-quarters of a year away, the political press is understandably focusing on the races with the biggest personalities and most dramatic storylines. But just because a race makes for great copy in February doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that compelling in November.

Take, for instance, this observation from ABC News: “No doubt about it: The Kentucky Senate race will be the most watched 2014 contest of them all, and the stakes could not be higher.”

Almost everyone appears to agree, to judge by the coverage so far. There’s been a sizable amount of ink spilled on the Kentucky contest because of its seemingly titanic implications: Could Mitch McConnell, in a year when he might otherwise become majority leader, actually be toppled in the Republican primary by an upstart Tea Party type, Matt Bevin? Or lose to the Democrat, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, in the general election?

To read the rest of the column, please click here.