Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Brutal Bottom Line

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 26th, 2006

With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals appear at the top and bottom of each column, respectively. The Crystal Ball’s “Brutal B” bottom-line predictions as of early September appear below each chart.

2006 Senate Outlook Summary Chart

Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)

Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (3) Leans D (3) Likely D (0) Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe) RI (Chafee) OH (DeWine)
MS (Lott) TN (OPEN) PA (Santorum)
NV (Ensign)
TX (Hutchison)
UT (Hatch)
WY (Thomas)
WV (Byrd)
WI (Kohl)
NY (Clinton)
NM (Bingaman)
ND (Conrad)
MA (Kennedy)
HI (Akaka)
FL (Nelson)
DE (Carper)
NE (Nelson) CT (Lieberman*)
WA (Cantwell) MN (OPEN) VT (OPEN)
NJ (Menendez) MD (OPEN) MI (Stabenow) CA (Feinstein)
Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (1) Leans D (2) Likely D (3) Solid D (12)

Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held)

The Brutal B – October 26, 2006: +3 to +6 D

Click here for individual Senate race analysis.

2006 House Outlook Summary Chart

Republican Held Seats in Play: 63 (169 Safe/Solid R)

Likely R (17) Leans R (18) Toss-up (16) Leans D (12) Likely D (0)
CA-04 (Doolittle) AZ-01 (Renzi) CT-02 (Simmons) AZ-08 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray) AZ-05 (Hayworth) CT-04 (Shays) CO-07 (OPEN)
CO-05 (OPEN) CA-11 (Pombo) FL-13 (OPEN) FL-16 (OPEN)
FL-08 (Keller) CO-04 (Musgrave) FL-22 (Shaw) IN-02 (Chocola)
FL-09 (OPEN) CT-05 (Johnson) IL-06 (OPEN) IN-08 (Hostettler)
IL-10 (Kirk) ID-01 (OPEN) IN-09 (Sodrel) IA-01 (OPEN)
IN-03 (Souder) KY-03 (Northup) KY-04 (Davis) NY-24 (OPEN)
IA-02 (Leach) MN-01 (Gutknecht) MN-06 (OPEN) OH-18 (OPEN)
KY-02 (Lewis) NV-02 (OPEN) NM-01 (Wilson) PA-06 (Gerlach)
NE-01 (Fortenberry) NV-03 (Porter) NC-11 (Taylor) PA-07 (Weldon)
NH-02 (Bass) NJ-07 (Ferguson) NY-26 (Reynolds) PA-10 (Sherwood)
NY-03 (King) NY-20 (Sweeney) OH-02 (Schmidt) TX-22 (OPEN)
NY-19 (Kelly) NY-25 (Walsh) OH-15 (Pryce)
NC-08 (Hayes) NY-29 (Kuhl) VA-02 (Drake)
PA-04 (Hart) OH-01 (Chabot) WA-08 (Reichert)
VA-10 (Wolf) PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) WI-08 (OPEN)
WA-05 (McMorris) TX-23 (Bonilla)
WY-AL (Cubin)
WV-01 (Mollohan)
VT-AL (OPEN)
TX-17 (Edwards)
SC-05 (Spratt)
IA-03 (Boswell) OH-06 (OPEN)
IL-08 (Bean) LA-03 (Melancon)
GA-12 (Barrow) IL-17 (OPEN)
GA-08 (Marshall) CO-03 (Salazar)
Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (0) Leans D (4) Likely D (8)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 12 (191 Safe/Solid D)

The Brutal B – October 26, 2006: +21 to +26 D

Click here for individual House race analysis.

2006 Governor Outlook Summary Chart

Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)

Solid R (6) Likely R (5) Leans R (4) Toss-up (2) Leans D (3) Likely D (1) Solid D (1)
CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN)
HI (Lingle) CA (Schwarzenegger) ID (OPEN) MN (Pawlenty) CO (OPEN)
NE (Heineman) FL (OPEN) NV (OPEN) MA (OPEN)
SD (Rounds) GA (Perdue) RI (Carcieri)
VT (Douglas) SC (Sanford)
TX (Perry)
WY (Freudenthal)
TN (Bredesen)
WI (Doyle) NM (Richardson)
OR (Kulongoski) MI (Granholm) NH (Lynch)
ME (Baldacci) PA (Rendell) OK (Henry)
IA (OPEN) IL (Blagojevich) KS (Sebelius) AZ (Napolitano)
Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (2) Leans D (4) Likely D (2) Solid D (6)

Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held)

The Brutal B – October 26, 2006: +4 to +6 D

Click here for individual Governor race analysis.