Sabato's Crystal Ball

Some Close Primary and Caucus Results From the Past

Geoffrey Skelley, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics January 3rd, 2012

With tonight’s agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years:

1972
Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6.

1976
Dems: April 6, Wisconsin – Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska – Church 38.5, Carter 37.6; May 18, Michigan – Carter 43.4, Udall 43.1.
GOP: Jan 19, Iowa – Ford 45, Reagan 43; March 2, New Hampshire – Ford 49.4, Reagan 48.

1980
GOP: March 4, Massachusetts – Bush 31, Anderson 30.7, Reagan 28.8; March 4, Vermont – Reagan 30.1, Anderson 29.
Dems: April 22, Pennsylvania – Kennedy 45.7, Carter 45.4.

1984
Dems: May 8, Indiana – Hart 41.8, Mondale 40.9; May 8, Hart 42, Mondale 40.3

1988
GOP: March 8, Missouri – Bush 42.2, Dole 41.1.
Dems: March 8, North Carolina – Gore 34.7, Jackson 33.

1992
Dems: March 3, Colorado – Brown 28.8, Clinton 26.9, Tsongas 25.6; March 24, Connecticut – Brown 37.2, Clinton 35.6; April 7, Minnesota – Clinton 31.1, Brown 30.6.

1996
GOP: Feb 20, New Hampshire – Buchanan 27.2, Dole 26.2.

2004
Dems: Feb 3, Oklahoma – Clark 29.9, Edwards 29.5, Kerry 26.8.

2008
GOP: Feb 5, Missouri – McCain 33, Huckabee 31.5, Romney 29.3; Feb 9, Louisiana – Huckabee 43.2, McCain 41.9.
Dems: Feb 5, New Mexico – Clinton 49, Obama 47.9; May 6, Indiana – Clinton 50.6, Obama 49.4; May 3, Guam – Obama 50.1, Clinton 49.9.