Sabato's Crystal Ball

Some Close Primary and Caucus Results From the Past

Geoffrey Skelley, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics January 3rd, 2012

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With tonight’s agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years:

1972
Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6.

1976
Dems: April 6, Wisconsin – Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska – Church 38.5, Carter 37.6; May 18, Michigan – Carter 43.4, Udall 43.1.
GOP: Jan 19, Iowa – Ford 45, Reagan 43; March 2, New Hampshire – Ford 49.4, Reagan 48.

1980
GOP: March 4, Massachusetts – Bush 31, Anderson 30.7, Reagan 28.8; March 4, Vermont – Reagan 30.1, Anderson 29.
Dems: April 22, Pennsylvania – Kennedy 45.7, Carter 45.4.

1984
Dems: May 8, Indiana – Hart 41.8, Mondale 40.9; May 8, Hart 42, Mondale 40.3

1988
GOP: March 8, Missouri – Bush 42.2, Dole 41.1.
Dems: March 8, North Carolina – Gore 34.7, Jackson 33.

1992
Dems: March 3, Colorado – Brown 28.8, Clinton 26.9, Tsongas 25.6; March 24, Connecticut – Brown 37.2, Clinton 35.6; April 7, Minnesota – Clinton 31.1, Brown 30.6.

1996
GOP: Feb 20, New Hampshire – Buchanan 27.2, Dole 26.2.

2004
Dems: Feb 3, Oklahoma – Clark 29.9, Edwards 29.5, Kerry 26.8.

2008
GOP: Feb 5, Missouri – McCain 33, Huckabee 31.5, Romney 29.3; Feb 9, Louisiana – Huckabee 43.2, McCain 41.9.
Dems: Feb 5, New Mexico – Clinton 49, Obama 47.9; May 6, Indiana – Clinton 50.6, Obama 49.4; May 3, Guam – Obama 50.1, Clinton 49.9.