Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/prd2006110101/
Export date: Mon Oct 23 22:27:01 2017 / +0000 GMT

Template for Final Predictions


  • XX-00 - Outlook - Rep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • XX-00 - Outlook - First Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • XX-00 - Outlook - First Last (X) will defeat First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • Arizona - Leans GOP - Sen. Jon Kyl (R) will win reelection over Jim Pederson (D). For Jon Kyl, the fact his lead has held steady through October is far more important than the fact his lead is modest. >>>> Read more
  • Connecticut - Leans Lieberman - Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) will win reelection over Ned Lamont (D). In August, anti-Iraq War activists knew they could only send an immediate message by targeting Lieberman, but in November they finally have Republicans to target and Lamont has badly lost steam. >>>> Read more
  • Maryland - Leans Dem - Ben Cardin (D) will defeat Michael Steele (R). Though Steele has had a comparatively good month, we just don't buy the argument that he is within striking distance of the more ideologically in-step (if boring) Cardin. >>>> Read more
  • Michigan - Likely Dem - Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) will win reelection over Mike Bouchard (R). Why national Republicans won't give up on this race is beyond us; many argue Bouchard is gaining back some ground, but we say too little too late. >>>> Read more
  • Minnesota - Likely Dem - Amy Klobuchar (D) will defeat Mark Kennedy (R). The GOP is headed for an unpleasant year in Minnesota, and no matter what new tricks Kennedy tries, Klobuchar's lead just continues to grow. >>>> Read more
  • Missouri - Tossup - Claire McCaskill (D) will unseat Sen. Jim Talent (R). This race couldn't be closer, but here's our rationale: "Show Me" a slightly more red-than-blue state in a very Democratic year, and I'll show you a slightly more blue-than-red Senate outcome. >>>> Read more
  • Montana - Leans Dem - Jon Tester (D) will unseat Sen. Conrad Burns (R). Burns has ably portrayed Tester as well left of Montana's mainstream, but the Abramoff drumbeat may be insurmountable for him and Tester was quick to criticize Sen. Kerry's recent statement. >>>> Read more
  • Nebraska - Likely Dem - Sen. Ben Nelson (D) will win reelection over Pete Ricketts (R). What started out as a rickety effort to unseat Nelson never really started rolling (sorry Pete, we couldn't resist), and Nelson will win a second term. >>>> Read more
  • New Jersey - Tossup - Sen. Bob Menendez (D) will defeat Tom Kean (R). In our estimation, the race in the Garden State remains Republicans' best opportunity to pick off a Democratic-held Senate seat, but that's not saying much. >>>> Read more
  • Ohio - Likely Dem - Sherrod Brown (D) will unseat Sen. Mike DeWine (R). Whether or not national Republicans have abandoned hope in Ohio, it is clear that DeWine's campaign is in a tailspin as Brown continues to attack him aggressively. >>>> Read more
  • Pennsylvania - Solid Dem - Bob Casey (D) will unseat Sen. Rick Santorum (R). Santorum's combativeness on the trail and in debates has only seemed to confirm what voters do not like about him, and the easy-going Casey is now a safe bet to win. >>>> Read more
  • Rhode Island - Leans Dem - Sheldon Whitehouse (D) will unseat Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R). It's often forgotten that the Ocean State is the nation's most Democratic, and that's just about the only reason we believe Chafee will suffer a narrow defeat at the hands of Whitehouse in just a few days. >>>> Read more
  • Tennessee - Tossup - Bob Corker (R) will defeat Harold Ford (D). The Corker-Ford grudge match continues to both entertain and confound us, but the presence of a gay marriage amendment on the ballot may be just enough to boost Corker's fortunes in spite of national GOP missteps. >>>> Read more
  • Virginia - Tossup - Jim Webb (D) will unseat Sen. George Allen (R). Of course we're not counting him out altogether, but Allen's slow self-destruction has been nothing short of breathtaking, and we at the Crystal Ball are still somewhat shocked to find ourselves at the epicenter of the fight for the Senate. >>>> Read more
  • Washington - Leans Dem - Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) will win reelection over Mike McGavick (R). This great hope of national Republicans never materialized in the fall, as McGavick stumbled and the political atmosphere became only more hostile to the GOP, especially on the "Left Coast." >>>> Read more
    • AZ-01 - Leans GOP - Rep. Rick Renzi (R) will win reelection over Ellen Simon (D). Despite a late charge by Simon and a whiff of incumbent scandal, we'll stick with Renzi to win a third term in Congress. >>>> Read more
    • AZ-05 - Toss-up - Harry Mitchell (D) will unseat Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R).The Crystal Ball will go against the grain to predict the mild-mannered Mitchell will upset Class of 1994 firebrand Hayworth in this moderate district. >>>> Read more
    • AZ-08 - Likely Dem - Gabrielle Giffords (D) will defeat Randy Graf (R).The Crystal Ball will go against the grain to predict the mild-mannered Mitchell will upset Class of 1994 firebrand Hayworth in this moderate district. >>>> Read more
    Post date: 2006-10-20 00:00:00
    Post date GMT: 1970-01-01 04:59:59


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