Sabato's Crystal Ball

Template for Final Predictions

Wizard needs food...badly

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 20th, 2006

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  • XX-00OutlookRep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • XX-00OutlookFirst Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • XX-00OutlookFirst Last (X) will defeat First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
  • ArizonaLeans GOPSen. Jon Kyl (R) will win reelection over Jim Pederson (D). For Jon Kyl, the fact his lead has held steady through October is far more important than the fact his lead is modest. >>>> Read more
  • ConnecticutLeans LiebermanSen. Joe Lieberman (D) will win reelection over Ned Lamont (D). In August, anti-Iraq War activists knew they could only send an immediate message by targeting Lieberman, but in November they finally have Republicans to target and Lamont has badly lost steam. >>>> Read more
  • MarylandLeans DemBen Cardin (D) will defeat Michael Steele (R). Though Steele has had a comparatively good month, we just don’t buy the argument that he is within striking distance of the more ideologically in-step (if boring) Cardin. >>>> Read more
  • MichiganLikely DemSen. Debbie Stabenow (D) will win reelection over Mike Bouchard (R). Why national Republicans won’t give up on this race is beyond us; many argue Bouchard is gaining back some ground, but we say too little too late. >>>> Read more
  • MinnesotaLikely DemAmy Klobuchar (D) will defeat Mark Kennedy (R). The GOP is headed for an unpleasant year in Minnesota, and no matter what new tricks Kennedy tries, Klobuchar’s lead just continues to grow. >>>> Read more
  • MissouriTossupClaire McCaskill (D) will unseat Sen. Jim Talent (R). This race couldn’t be closer, but here’s our rationale: “Show Me” a slightly more red-than-blue state in a very Democratic year, and I’ll show you a slightly more blue-than-red Senate outcome. >>>> Read more
  • MontanaLeans DemJon Tester (D) will unseat Sen. Conrad Burns (R). Burns has ably portrayed Tester as well left of Montana’s mainstream, but the Abramoff drumbeat may be insurmountable for him and Tester was quick to criticize Sen. Kerry’s recent statement. >>>> Read more
  • NebraskaLikely DemSen. Ben Nelson (D) will win reelection over Pete Ricketts (R). What started out as a rickety effort to unseat Nelson never really started rolling (sorry Pete, we couldn’t resist), and Nelson will win a second term. >>>> Read more
  • New JerseyTossupSen. Bob Menendez (D) will defeat Tom Kean (R). In our estimation, the race in the Garden State remains Republicans’ best opportunity to pick off a Democratic-held Senate seat, but that’s not saying much. >>>> Read more
  • OhioLikely DemSherrod Brown (D) will unseat Sen. Mike DeWine (R). Whether or not national Republicans have abandoned hope in Ohio, it is clear that DeWine’s campaign is in a tailspin as Brown continues to attack him aggressively. >>>> Read more
  • PennsylvaniaSolid DemBob Casey (D) will unseat Sen. Rick Santorum (R). Santorum’s combativeness on the trail and in debates has only seemed to confirm what voters do not like about him, and the easy-going Casey is now a safe bet to win. >>>> Read more
  • Rhode IslandLeans DemSheldon Whitehouse (D) will unseat Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R). It’s often forgotten that the Ocean State is the nation’s most Democratic, and that’s just about the only reason we believe Chafee will suffer a narrow defeat at the hands of Whitehouse in just a few days. >>>> Read more
  • TennesseeTossupBob Corker (R) will defeat Harold Ford (D). The Corker-Ford grudge match continues to both entertain and confound us, but the presence of a gay marriage amendment on the ballot may be just enough to boost Corker’s fortunes in spite of national GOP missteps. >>>> Read more
  • VirginiaTossupJim Webb (D) will unseat Sen. George Allen (R). Of course we’re not counting him out altogether, but Allen’s slow self-destruction has been nothing short of breathtaking, and we at the Crystal Ball are still somewhat shocked to find ourselves at the epicenter of the fight for the Senate. >>>> Read more
  • WashingtonLeans DemSen. Maria Cantwell (D) will win reelection over Mike McGavick (R). This great hope of national Republicans never materialized in the fall, as McGavick stumbled and the political atmosphere became only more hostile to the GOP, especially on the “Left Coast.” >>>> Read more
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