Sabato's Crystal Ball

Who Starts With an Edge in 2016?

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato's Crystal Ball February 5th, 2015

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team provide a very early outlook for the 2016 presidential election. — The Editors

The 2016 presidential election is going to resemble Thomas Hobbes’ famous description of the natural state of human life in two ways: It will be nasty and brutish.

What it will not be is short.

The campaign shifted into full swing on Dec. 16, when former Florida governor Jeb Bush announced that he would “actively explore the possibility of running for president” and it accelerated with Mitt Romney’s double January bombshell that he was considering, then had stopped considering, a third run.

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