ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE:
If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.
If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.
The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally.
SENATE UPDATE:
CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS | ||
---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Projected Result |
Arkansas | Sen. Mark Pryor | Democratic |
Delaware | Sen. Joe Biden | Democratic |
Illinois | Sen. Dick Durbin | Democratic |
Iowa | Sen. Tom Harkin | Democratic |
Louisiana | Sen. Mary Landrieu | Democratic |
Massachusetts | Sen. John Kerry | Democratic |
Michigan | Sen. Carl Levin | Democratic |
Montana | Sen. Max Baucus | Democratic |
New Jersey | Sen. Frank Lautenberg | Democratic |
Rhode Island | Sen. Jack Reed | Democratic |
South Dakota | Sen. Tim Johnson | Democratic |
West Virginia | Sen. Jay Rockefeller | Democratic |
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS | ||
State | Incumbent | Projected Result |
Alabama | Sen. Jeff Sessions | Republican |
Alaska | Sen. Ted Stevens | Democratic |
Colorado | OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring) Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R) |
Democratic |
Georgia | Sen. Saxby Chambliss | *** |
Idaho | OPEN (Sen. Larry Craig retiring) Larry LaRocco (D) vs. Jim Risch (R) |
Republican |
Kansas | Sen. Pat Roberts | Republican |
Kentucky | Sen. Mitch McConnell | Republican |
Maine | Sen. Susan Collins | Republican |
Nebraska | OPEN (Sen. Chuck Hagel retiring) Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Mike Johanns (R) |
Republican |
New Hampshire | Sen. John Sununu | Democratic |
New Mexico | OPEN (Sen. Pete Domenici retiring) Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R) |
Democratic |
North Carolina | Sen. Elizabeth Dole | Democratic |
Minnesota | Sen. Norm Coleman | Republican |
Mississippi | Sen. Thad Cochran | Republican |
Mississippi (special) | OPEN (Sen. Trent Lott retiring) Ronnie Musgrove (D) vs. Roger Wicker (R) |
Republican |
Oregon | Sen. Gordon Smith | Democratic |
Oklahoma | Sen. Jim Inhofe | Republican |
South Carolina | Sen. Lindsey Graham | Republican |
Tennessee | Sen. Lamar Alexander | Republican |
Texas | Sen. John Cornyn | Republican |
Virginia | OPEN (Sen. John Warner retiring) Mark Warner (D) vs. Jim Gilmore (R) |
Democratic |
Wyoming | Sen. Mike Enzi | Republican |
Wyoming (special) | Sen. John Barrasso (appointed) | Republican |
***We believe this race will go to a Dec. 2 runoff election. No candidate will receive 50 percent plus one on Nov. 4.
Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.
GOVERNOR UPDATE:
CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS | ||
---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Projected Result |
Delaware | OPEN Jack Markell (D) vs. Bill Lee (R) |
|
Montana | Brian Schweitzer | Democratic |
North Carolina | OPEN Beverly Perdue (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R) |
Democratic |
New Hampshire | John Lynch | Democratic |
Washington | Christine Gregoire | Democratic |
West Virginia | Joe Manchin III | Democratic |
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS | ||
---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Projected Result |
Indiana | Mitch Daniels | Republican |
Missouri | OPEN Jay Nixon (D) vs. Kenny Hulshof (R) |
Democratic |
North Dakota | John Hoeven | Republican |
Utah | Jon Huntsman, Jr. | Republican |
Vermont | Jim Douglas | Republican |
Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.
HOUSE UPDATE:
Produced under the direction of Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley.
Republican Held Seats in Play: 59
(The other 140 Republican-held seats are solid for the GOP.)
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 33
(The other 203 Democratic-held seats are solid for the Democrats.)