Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2008103001/
Export date: Tue Oct 24 4:02:10 2017 / +0000 GMT

THE LAST WORD--ALMOST




These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups.

We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism.

In January 2009 we'll start our focus on the new administration and Congress--and yes, the critical "Census/redistricting" midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato's Crystal Ball.




ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE:



These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.




SENATE UPDATE:

CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic
Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic
Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic
Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic
Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry Democratic
Michigan Sen. Carl Levin Democratic
Montana Sen. Max Baucus Democratic
New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg Democratic
Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed Democratic
South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson Democratic
West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller Democratic
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Republican
Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens Democratic
Colorado OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)

Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R)
Democratic
Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss ***
Idaho OPEN (Sen. Larry Craig retiring)

Larry LaRocco (D) vs. Jim Risch (R)
Republican
Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts Republican
Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell Republican
Maine Sen. Susan Collins Republican
Nebraska OPEN (Sen. Chuck Hagel retiring)

Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Mike Johanns (R)
Republican
New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu Democratic
New Mexico OPEN (Sen. Pete Domenici retiring)

Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)
Democratic
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole Democratic
Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman Republican
Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran Republican
Mississippi (special) OPEN (Sen. Trent Lott retiring)

Ronnie Musgrove (D) vs. Roger Wicker (R)
Republican
Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith Democratic
Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe Republican
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham Republican
Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander Republican
Texas Sen. John Cornyn Republican
Virginia OPEN (Sen. John Warner retiring)

Mark Warner (D) vs. Jim Gilmore (R)
Democratic
Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi Republican
Wyoming (special) Sen. John Barrasso (appointed) Republican

***We believe this race will go to a Dec. 2 runoff election. No candidate will receive 50 percent plus one on Nov. 4.

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.


GOVERNOR UPDATE:



CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Delaware OPEN

Jack Markell (D) vs. Bill Lee (R)
Democratic
Montana Brian Schweitzer Democratic
North Carolina OPEN

Beverly Perdue (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R)
Toss-up**
New Hampshire John Lynch Democratic
Washington Christine Gregoire Democratic
West Virginia Joe Manchin III Democratic

**Extremely close toss-up. We will declare this race on Monday.



CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Indiana Mitch Daniels Republican
Missouri OPEN

Jay Nixon (D) vs. Kenny Hulshof (R)
Democratic
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican
Utah Jon Huntsman, Jr. Republican
Vermont Jim Douglas Republican

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.


HOUSE UPDATE:

Produced under the direction of Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley.

Republican Held Seats in Play: 58

(The other 141 Republican-held seats are solid for the GOP.)

Republican Hold (20) Toss-up (9) Democratic Pick-up (29)
AL-02 (OPEN) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) AK-AL (Young)
AZ-03 (Shadegg) ID-01 (Sali) AZ-01 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray) IN-03 (Souder) CA-04 (OPEN)
FL-13 (Buchanan) LA-04 (OPEN) CO-04 (Musgrave)
IA-04 (Latham) MD-01 (OPEN) CT-04 (Shays)
IL-18 (OPEN) NE-02 (Terry) FL-08 (Keller)
LA-07 (Boustany) NJ-07 (OPEN) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)
MO-06 (Graves) OH-01 (Chabot) FL-24 (Feeney)
MO-09 (OPEN) WY-AL (OPEN) IL-10 (Kirk)
NJ-05 (Garrett) IL-11 (OPEN)
NV-02 (Heller) KY-02 (OPEN)
OH-02 (Schmidt) MI-07 (Walberg)
PA-06 (Gerlach) MI-09 (Knollenberg)
PA-15 (Dent) MN-03 (OPEN)
PA-18 (Murphy) MN-06 (Bachmann)
SC-01 (Brown) NC-08 (Hayes)
TX-07 (Culberson) NJ-03 (OPEN)
TX-10 (McCaul) NM-01 (OPEN)
VA-02 (Drake) NM-02 (OPEN)
VA-05 (Goode) NV-03 (Porter)
WV-02 (Capito) NY-13 (OPEN)
NY-25 (OPEN)
NY-26 (OPEN)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
OH-15 (OPEN)
OH-16 (OPEN)
PA-03 (English)
VA-11 (OPEN)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WI-08 (Kagen)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
PA-12 (Murtha)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-04 (Altmire)
OR-05 (OPEN)
OH-18 (Space)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)
NY-19 (Hall)
NH-02 (Hodes)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
MS-01 (Childers)
MN-01 (Walz)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
KS-03 (Moore)
KS-02 (Boyda)
IN-09 (Hill)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IL-14 (Foster)
IL-08 (Bean)
GA-12 (Barrow)
GA-08 (Marshall)
CT-05 (Murphy)
CA-11 (McNerney)
TX-22 (Lampson) AZ-08 (Giffords)
PA-11 (Kanjorski) AZ-05 (Mitchell)
FL-16 (Mahoney) AL-05 (OPEN)
Republican Pick-up (3) Toss-up (0) Democratic Hold (30)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32

(The other 204 Democratic-held seats are solid for the Democrats.)



The Crystal Ball will make its final calls on all toss-up House races on Monday. These projections will be found on our website.


Post date: 2008-10-30 00:00:00
Post date GMT: 2008-10-30 04:00:00


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