Sabato's Crystal Ball

The November Match-Ups, as Seen From January

Potentially positive news for McCain, Obama

UVA Center for Politics January 31st, 2008

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Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a long-time friend of the Crystal Ball, sent us the following table, summarizing the national polls in January 2008. Alan writes:

“At this point, John McCain is the only Republican candidate who appears to have a realistic chance of defeating either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. McCain does dramatically better against both Democrats than any other Republican, and of course much better than a generic Republican. All of the other Republican candidates lose badly to Clinton and even more badly to Obama. Whether McCain can maintain his broad appeal while also trying to appeal to the conservative base of the GOP in the remaining primaries remains to be seen.”

Match-Up Average Result (N)
Generic D vs. Generic R +16.6 Generic D (2)
Clinton vs. McCain -1.1 Clinton (+1.1 McCain) (6)
Clinton vs. Romney +13.2 Clinton (5)
Clinton vs. Huckabee +11.7 Clinton (6)
Clinton vs. Giuliani +10.8 Clinton (6)
Obama vs. McCain -1.0 Obama (+1.0 McCain) (6)
Obama vs. Romney +19.0 Obama (5)
Obama vs. Huckabee +16.5 Obama (6)
Obama vs. Giuliani +18.4 Obama (5)
Clinton Average +8.6
Obama Average +13.2
McCain Average +1.0
Romney Average -16.1
Huckabee Average -14.1
Giuliani Average -14.6

Source: Pollingreport.com, January 25, 2008.