Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110901/
Export date: Sun Oct 22 2:59:47 2017 / +0000 GMT

A Look Back, A Look Forward


What an election! Whether you liked or disliked the outcome, surely you must agree that this contest will be remembered by history. We have not seen such intensity since 1968, and not coincidentally, the turnout of eligible adult Americans appears to have been larger in 2004 than any presidential year since...1968.

We're proud of our record at the Crystal Ball, having forecast 525 of 530 contests correctly--a 99 percent accuracy rating. We missed one Senate race, one House race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College, and like all political analysts reading the election returns, we are kicking ourselves for getting those wrong! But it was our best year ever, and we are thrilled.

Now it's on to the 2004 post-election book. We'll soon have an announcement about ARMAGEDDON: The Bush-Kerry Contest (New York: Pearson/Longman, 2005). A terrific cast of first-rate academics, journalists, and political observers has joined forces to produce the analysis for this forthcoming volume. At the appropriate time, we'll send you the details so you can order a copy, should you be so inclined.

We will save our analysis for that venue, but don't forget several points:

  1. The Perfect Majority Theorem: The "perfect majority" is 51 percent, exactly what George W. Bush received. Why is it perfect? Super-majorities such as those received by LBJ(1964), Nixon(1972), and Reagan(1984) inevitably deteriorate over time because of internal stresses and contradictory demands that cannot be satisfied. By contrast, a 51 percent majority is easier to maintain, makes governing easier, and increases a party's chances of winning the next election. It may seem counterintuitive, but the theorem holds in practice under most conditions.
  2. Mobilization in a democracy begets counter-mobilization. The 2004 election now becomes Exhibit A in proving this time-tested axiom. Both the Republicans and Democrats sense that 2004 would be a competitive year with high stakes, and they separately went to work to register new voters and get new and old voters to the polls. Reports of success by one party fed intensified efforts by the other party, and on it went for a year or more. The result was higher turnout and enhanced interest in the election--through no overarching advantage for either party from this aspect of campaigning.
  3. Bush as Truman. Our regular readers are no doubt sick of our comparisons to 1948, but of all the twentieth century presidential elections, we would insist that 1948 is the closest to 2004. In both cases, an incumbent who fell behind for a good bit of the election year threw himself into the campaign, and the "regular guy" incumbent managed to convince a skeptical public, by a few percentage points, that his course was superior to a sometimes aloof challenger's. All the other incumbents who fell behind in the election year in the modern era have lost reelection. Truman and Bush are the only members of a very special presidential club.

There is only one aspect of this election that has disappointed us. It has been a full week since Nov. 2, and virtually no stories yet have focused on the upcoming 2006 elections! Where are your priorities, America?

While we are taking a break for a while at the Crystal Ball so that we can produce our 2004 book, we want to leave you with a tantalizing look ahead. The elections for 33 Senate seats and 36 governorships--plus Virginia and New Jersey in 2005--have already begun. And who knows? Even with shameful partisan redistricting in most of the states, maybe we'll be able to fill up our Nifty Fifty for 2006 out of 435 House seats. (Imagine, we might not be able to find just fifty competitive House contests in a universe of 435!) Also, keep in mind that 2006 represents the sixth year of the George W. Bush presidency, and as such, there just might be a "sixth year itch," where voters turn to the out-of-power party in surprising numbers. In recent times Dwight Eisenhower (1958), JFK/LBJ (1966), Nixon/Ford (1974), and Ronald Reagan (1986) experienced the dreaded itch. But it isn't a mandate of politics. Bill Clinton avoided it entirely in 1998, thanks to a Democratic life provided by GOP impeachment efforts. (Of course, Clinton had his sixth year itch in the second year, 1994.) All in all, it's far too early to say whether the phenomenon will be observed anew in 2006; rather, at this moment, it is simply a possibility, and it might be observed more in governorships than Senate or House contests.

As the table below shows, term limits automatically give us open governorships in Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, and Ohio. (Virginia, with its one-term limit, is also open in 2005, and New Jersey is probably open, too, assuming State Senate President/Acting Governor Richard Codey defers to his party's preferred choice, Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Corzine.) We also have possible or likely retirements in Alaska (Frank Murkowski-R), Iowa (Tom Vilsack-D), New York (George Pataki-R), and Texas (Rick Perry-R). At the moment, the other incumbents appear to be running, and some of the possible retirees might try again, too.

2006 Senate Races

State Incumbent Party
ArizonaJohn KylRepublican
CaliforniaDianne FeinsteinDemocrat
ConnecticutJoseph LiebermanDemocrat
DelawareThomas CarperDemocrat
FloridaBill NelsonDemocrat
HawaiiDaniel AkakaDemocrat
MaineOlympia SnoweRepublican
MarylandPaul SarbanesDemocrat
MassachusettsEdward KennedyDemocrat
Michigan Debbie StabenowDemocrat
MinnesotaMark DaytonDemocrat
MississippiTrent LottRepublican
MissouriJames TalentRepublican
MontanaConrad BurnsRepublican
NevadaJohn EnsignRepublican
New JerseyJon CorzineDemocrat
New MexicoJeff BingamanDemocrat
New YorkHillary ClintonDemocrat
North DakotaKent ConradDemocrat
OhioMike DeWineRepublican
PennsylvaniaRick SantorumRepublican
Rhode IslandLincoln ChafeeRepublican
TennesseeBill FristRepublican
TexasKay HutchisonRepublican
UtahOrrin HatchRepublican
VermontJames JeffordsIndependent
VirginiaGeorge AllenRepublican
WashingtonMaria CantwellDemocrat
West VirginiaRobert ByrdDemocrat
WisconsinHerb KohlDemocrat
WyomingCraig ThomasRepublican

2006 Governor's Seats

State Incumbent Party
AlabamaBob RileyRepublican
AlaskaFrank Murkowski Republican
ArizonaJanet Napolitano Democrat
ArkansasMike Huckabee Republican
CaliforniaArnold Schwarzenegger Republican
ColoradoBill Owens Republican
ConnecticutM. Jodi RellRepublican
FloridaJeb Bush Republican
GeorgiaSonny Perdue Republican
HawaiiLinda Lingle Republican
IdahoDirk Kempthorne Republican
IllinoisRod Blagojevich Democrat
IowaTom Vilsack Democrat
KansasKathleen Sebelius Democrat
MaineJohn Baldacci Democrat
MarylandRobert Ehrlich Republican
MassachusettsMitt Romney Republican
MichiganJennifer Granholm Democrat
MinnesotaTim Pawlenty Republican
NebraskaMike Johanns Republican
NevadaKenny Guinn Republican
New HampshireJohn LynchDemocrat
New MexicoBill Richardson Democrat
New YorkGeorge Pataki Republican
OhioBob Taft Republican
OklahomaBrad Henry Democrat
OregonTed Kulongoski Democrat
PennsylvaniaEd Rendell Democrat
Rhode IslandDonald Carcieri Republican
South CarolinaMark Sanford Republican
South DakotaMike Rounds Republican
TennesseePhil Bredesen Democrat
TexasRick Perry Republican
VermontJames DouglasRepublican
WisconsinJim Doyle Democrat
WyomingDave Freudenthal Democrat

On the Senate side of the ledger, we see 10 possible retirees: Akaka (D-HI), Lugar (R-IN), Sarbanes (D-MD), Lott (R-MS), Burns (R-MT), Frist (R-TN), Hutchison (R-TX), Kohl (D-WI), Byrd (D-WV), and Thomas (R-WY). Any open seat generates competitiveness above the norm. And of course, there could be surprise retirees who have not even hinted at it.

Finally, the following senators begin the election cycle as vulnerable, though we caution that even many vulnerable senators win reelection in the end:

  • FL- Bill Nelson (D): The GOP tide in the Sunshine State cannot be ignored.
  • MI- Debbie Stabenow (D): This back-bencher had the party label advantage but she can expect strong opposition for the GOP.
  • MN-Mark Dayton (D): Closing down his Senate office this fall because of a perceived terrorist threat, when the other 99 senators kept their offices open, has made an already vulnerable senator highly vulnerable, especially from Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy.
  • NE-Ben Nelson (D): Narrowly elected in 2000, Nelson faces popular GOP Governor Mike Johanns in a heavily Republican state.
  • ND-Kent Conrad (D): This is probably a long shot for the GOP, but how long is North Dakota, a strong Republican state, going to send three Democrats to Congress when the Republicans have strong majorities in both houses?
  • PA-Rick Santorum (R): Santorum has two election victories under his belt, but he is more conservative than this moderate, two-party state, where statewide contests are usually quite competitive.
  • RI-Lincoln Chafee (R): Only switching parties will make Chafee truly secure in this overwhelmingly Democratic state, and that explains Chafee's vote for George H.W. Bush for president in 2004.
  • VA-George Allen (R): Should Democratic Governor Mark Warner choose to run for the Senate as his term ends in the statehouse, Allen will be in for an extremely expensive and very tough contest.
  • WA-Maria Cantwell (D): Barely elected to a first term in 2000, Cantwell has to sweat this one, even in a strongly Democratic state. Should Dino Rossi--locked in a too-close-to-call Governor's election at the moment--end up losing narrowly, he would make an ideal Republican candidate to challenge Cantwell.

All right, that should hold you, dear readers. We've enjoyed sharing this election cycle with you, and we hope you've enjoyed the Crystal Ball--a totally free, no-advertising, completely non-partisan politics site brought to you by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. See you soon, right back in this space! LJS

Post date: 2004-11-09 00:00:00
Post date GMT: 1970-01-01 04:59:59


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