Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Fresh Look at the Presidential Race

UVA Center for Politics July 7th, 2011

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With the Republican primary field in a state of constant flux, we will be frequently updating our rankings of the GOP contenders. The new chart is available here.

Mitt Romney retains his hold on the top spot in our rankings, but Michele Bachmann has skyrocketed up the rankings into our first tier, right behind Romney. Rounding out the updated top tier is a new entrant to our list: Rick Perry, who is generating a lot of buzz as a possible candidate.

At this point, we believe Perry is likelier to run than two other rumored candidates, Sarah Palin and Chris Christie, so we have taken those two off of our list for now.

Dropping from the top tier to the second tier is Tim Pawlenty, who has yet to gain traction with actual voters and in polls despite a lot of media buzz. Herman Cain, who moved up from our third tier, is now right behind Pawlenty in our rankings. Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, is sinking like a rock.

To get updates to our rankings as they happen, make sure to follow @LarrySabato on Twitter.