Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Notes on the State of Politics

Some short takes on what’s going on in the world of politics:
Ponzi scheme comments might not hurt Perry… in primaries
During the Tea Party debate last week, Mitt Romney harshly criticized Gov. Rick Perry for his description of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” Romney went so far as to call Perry’s description “unnecessary” and [...]

The Geography of Power: A Political Map of Virginia

, Director, U. Va. Center for Politics

Every 10 years the quietly methodical Census leads to blood on the floor of most state legislatures, as members try to convert the population numbers into districts from which they and their fellow politicians in the U.S. House will run for reelection. If anything, there’s even more blood flowing than usual in 2011.
The political maneuverings [...]

American Democracy Conference Looks Ahead to 2010 Elections

University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO to partner for midterm preview

Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009, 1 to 5 p.m. The Newseum, Washington, DC

Please join the University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO for the 11th annual American Democracy Conference. This year’s post-election conference will bring together today’s leading journalists, party insiders, and political analysts to examine the year’s key campaigns [...]

First Year Approval Ratings, Richard Nixon

The graphs below show Gallup approval ratings for the first year of each of Richard Nixon’s presidential terms.

Ballot Laws by State

Compiled by Isaac Wood and William Cooper, University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Ballot Placement Journal Articles

The following scholarly articles concern the effect of ballot placement on the behavior of voters. For each article we have included a short summary and/or the article’s abstract to assist interested readers in finding pertinent sources of information. Where possible, we have included a link to the article which can be read online, although [...]

Nrcc House Targets

Lieutenant Governors and the Governorship, 1984-2009

Table 1. Lieutenant Governors Who Became Governor

Notes: Italics in the years of LG service indicate a gap between the end of Lt. Governor and Governor service * Arizona, Oregon and Wyoming have no Lt. Governor; the Secretary of State is next-in-line to succeed the governor ** After becoming [...]

“Questioning the Constitution” Documentary Wins International Award of Excellence

International Academy of the Visual Arts Honors Center for Politics and Community Ideas Station Produced Film

“Questioning the Constitution,” a 2008 documentary produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the Community Ideas Stations, has received the Award of Excellence, given annually by the International Academy of Visual Arts (IAVA). The Award of Excellence is the IAVA’s highest distinction. The organization receives more than 9,000 nominations each year [...]

2008 Split House Districts

New Jersey Governor Showdown

, Staff Writer

Before we dive into New Jersey’s surprisingly intriguing 2009 race for governor, let us premise everything that follows on the fact that any Republican running in New Jersey enters the batter’s box with two strikes, two outs, nobody on, and down two runs. Let us not kid ourselves, here.
That being said, Gov. [...]

High Interest Election, Media Boon

An Excerpt from The Year of Obama

, Associate Professor, Georgetown University

Editor’s Note: This piece is an excerpt from the new book, edited by Larry Sabato, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House.
The American public was more interested in the 2008 campaign than in any other in over twenty years, and attention to news reached new heights. Sixty percent [...]

Independent Voters and the President: Myths and Realities

, Senior Columnist

The importance of partisanship in contemporary American politics is widely recognized. Among the public as well as political leaders, party divisions run deep and it is increasingly clear that the arrival of a new President in Washington has done little to change that fundamental reality. Not only are Democrats and Republicans in Congress sharply [...]

Obama and the Redefinition of Presidential Coattails

, Senior Columnist

Barack Obama showed considerable vote-getting ability in last fall’s presidential election, with a clear-cut win in both popular and electoral votes. But when it came to presidential coattails, his were of the same modest length of many of his immediate predecessors.
A tally of the 2008 presidential vote by congressional district shows that [...]

Diverging Coalitions: The Transformation of the American Electorate

The election of America’s first black president has been widely hailed as an historic event. However, much less attention has been paid to the demographic trends which made that event possible and which will continue to affect elections and politics in the United States far into the future. In this article I examine those [...]