Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Ratings Changes and Some “Special” Updates

Tweaks to Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As the White House lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to the next — “chaos is the new normal,” as the Columbia Journalism Review put it in a Tuesday morning headline — Senate Republicans have to be worried that President Donald Trump’s difficulties will imperil their opportunity to make gains next year despite a very favorable […]

Why Ohio Picks the President

A preview of Kyle Kondik's new book on Ohio, The Bellwether

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: This essay is adapted from Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President, which is now available. As the nation turns its eyes to Cleveland next week, Kondik explains why his home state is seemingly always a reflection of national presidential voting and a major prize […]

Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire

, Senior Columnist

The American presidential nomination process gives enormous influence to two small and, in many ways, highly unrepresentative states: Iowa and New Hampshire. Not only are Iowa and New Hampshire sparsely populated states without any major metropolitan areas — Des Moines is the 89th largest metro area in the U.S. and Manchester is the 131st largest […]

“Bombs Away” Tackles Lbj, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks […]

Politico, Crystal Ball Announce New Partnership

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Politico are pleased to announce an exclusive media partnership to offer readers interactive ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. The new feature on Politico’s website shows which way the Center believes a race is leaning each week as well as the logic […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Some short takes on what’s going on in the world of politics: Ponzi scheme comments might not hurt Perry… in primaries During the Tea Party debate last week, Mitt Romney harshly criticized Gov. Rick Perry for his description of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” Romney went so far as to call Perry’s description “unnecessary” […]

The Geography of Power: A Political Map of Virginia

, Director, U. Va. Center for Politics

Every 10 years the quietly methodical Census leads to blood on the floor of most state legislatures, as members try to convert the population numbers into districts from which they and their fellow politicians in the U.S. House will run for reelection. If anything, there’s even more blood flowing than usual in 2011. The political […]

American Democracy Conference Looks Ahead to 2010 Elections

University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO to partner for midterm preview

Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009, 1 to 5 p.m. The Newseum, Washington, DC Please join the University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO for the 11th annual American Democracy Conference. This year’s post-election conference will bring together today’s leading journalists, party insiders, and political analysts to examine the year’s key campaigns and elections, evaluate current […]

First Year Approval Ratings, Richard Nixon

The graphs below show Gallup approval ratings for the first year of each of Richard Nixon’s presidential terms.

Ballot Laws by State

Compiled by Isaac Wood and William Cooper, University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Ballot Placement Journal Articles

The following scholarly articles concern the effect of ballot placement on the behavior of voters. For each article we have included a short summary and/or the article’s abstract to assist interested readers in finding pertinent sources of information. Where possible, we have included a link to the article which can be read online, although many […]

Nrcc House Targets

Lieutenant Governors and the Governorship, 1984-2009

Table 1. Lieutenant Governors Who Became Governor Notes: Italics in the years of LG service indicate a gap between the end of Lt. Governor and Governor service * Arizona, Oregon and Wyoming have no Lt. Governor; the Secretary of State is next-in-line to succeed the governor ** After becoming Governor for a short period of […]

“Questioning the Constitution” Documentary Wins International Award of Excellence

International Academy of the Visual Arts Honors Center for Politics and Community Ideas Station Produced Film

“Questioning the Constitution,” a 2008 documentary produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the Community Ideas Stations, has received the Award of Excellence, given annually by the International Academy of Visual Arts (IAVA). The Award of Excellence is the IAVA’s highest distinction. The organization receives more than 9,000 nominations each year for […]

2008 Split House Districts