Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Partner to Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools

Briefing will discuss outlook for the 2018 midterm and unveil new forecasting site

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos invite members of the media to the launch of their new 2018 Political Atlas — an interactive tool providing unique data on the 2018 midterm elections — at the National Press Club, Tuesday, August 28, 10-11 a.m. Larry J. Sabato, Founder and Director of the UVA […]

Extensive Mid-20th Century Presidential Collection Donated to University of Virginia Center for Politics

The University of Virginia Center for Politics has received an extensive collection of mid-20th century U.S. presidential memorabilia and artifacts from the estate of the late Jack F. Christie. The donation represents one of the largest privately-owned collections ever donated to the Center for Politics, and it’s made up of hundreds of items from the […]

Ratings Upgrades for Democrats in Ohio

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Governor Old Rating New Rating OH Open (Kasich, R) Leans Republican Toss-up A confluence of recent polls and reporting suggests that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is not really among the top Republican Senate targets […]

Ratings Changes and Some “Special” Updates

Tweaks to Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As the White House lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to the next — “chaos is the new normal,” as the Columbia Journalism Review put it in a Tuesday morning headline — Senate Republicans have to be worried that President Donald Trump’s difficulties will imperil their opportunity to make gains next year despite a very favorable […]

Why Ohio Picks the President

A preview of Kyle Kondik's new book on Ohio, The Bellwether

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: This essay is adapted from Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President, which is now available. As the nation turns its eyes to Cleveland next week, Kondik explains why his home state is seemingly always a reflection of national presidential voting and a major prize […]

Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire

, Senior Columnist

The American presidential nomination process gives enormous influence to two small and, in many ways, highly unrepresentative states: Iowa and New Hampshire. Not only are Iowa and New Hampshire sparsely populated states without any major metropolitan areas — Des Moines is the 89th largest metro area in the U.S. and Manchester is the 131st largest […]

“Bombs Away” Tackles Lbj, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks […]

Politico, Crystal Ball Announce New Partnership

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Politico are pleased to announce an exclusive media partnership to offer readers interactive ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. The new feature on Politico’s website shows which way the Center believes a race is leaning each week as well as the logic […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Some short takes on what’s going on in the world of politics: Ponzi scheme comments might not hurt Perry… in primaries During the Tea Party debate last week, Mitt Romney harshly criticized Gov. Rick Perry for his description of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” Romney went so far as to call Perry’s description “unnecessary” […]

The Geography of Power: A Political Map of Virginia

, Director, U. Va. Center for Politics

Every 10 years the quietly methodical Census leads to blood on the floor of most state legislatures, as members try to convert the population numbers into districts from which they and their fellow politicians in the U.S. House will run for reelection. If anything, there’s even more blood flowing than usual in 2011. The political […]

American Democracy Conference Looks Ahead to 2010 Elections

University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO to partner for midterm preview

Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009, 1 to 5 p.m. The Newseum, Washington, DC Please join the University of Virginia Center for Politics and POLITICO for the 11th annual American Democracy Conference. This year’s post-election conference will bring together today’s leading journalists, party insiders, and political analysts to examine the year’s key campaigns and elections, evaluate current […]

First Year Approval Ratings, Richard Nixon

The graphs below show Gallup approval ratings for the first year of each of Richard Nixon’s presidential terms.

Ballot Laws by State

Compiled by Isaac Wood and William Cooper, University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Ballot Placement Journal Articles

The following scholarly articles concern the effect of ballot placement on the behavior of voters. For each article we have included a short summary and/or the article’s abstract to assist interested readers in finding pertinent sources of information. Where possible, we have included a link to the article which can be read online, although many […]

Nrcc House Targets