Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘Rating Change’ Category

Bet on a Republican Senate Majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Join the Crystal Ball team Monday night at the University of Virginia for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information and to register to attend. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. While many races remain close, it’s just getting […]

As Election Day Closes in, Tight Gubernatorial Races Abound

Bevy of new ratings but still many razor-thin contests

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Can we be brutally frank? The governors’ races are really tough to call this year. As of Wednesday afternoon, 11 contests had margins of three points or less in either HuffPost Pollster or RealClearPolitics’ polling averages (nine were inside that mark in both). Of those 11 races, 10 feature incumbents seeking reelection. We’ve mentioned before […]

House 2014: Calling the Toss-Ups, Take 1

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Republicans and Democrats on both sides of the House campaign are fretting. The elephants worry that they have not clearly put away any single Democratic House incumbent — which is true — and that they are going to underperform, not just by a seat or two, the goal of winning 245 seats set by National […]

Senate Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a Republican Majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball’s outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated. The GOP needs at least a net gain of […]

Sizing Up the Statehouses

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Nov. 4 is rapidly approaching but a large number of gubernatorial contests remain up in the air. In fact, despite having some ratings changes this week, the Crystal Ball still has seven Toss-up races on the board, and most appear to be headed right down to the wire. The two new ratings this week are […]

Strange Cross-Currents in the Race for the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There are two vastly different lead paragraphs I could have used to open this story about the state of the race for the U.S. House. Instead of picking one, I’ll just include them both, and then try to explain the odd cross-currents we’re seeing in House races across the country. Lead No. 1: With 12 […]

The State of the Governors

For many, it’s surprisingly poor

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Governors frequently report on the state of their states, but what’s the state of the governors? To judge by many of the ongoing gubernatorial campaigns, it’s not great. Out of 36 contests, one governor (Neil Abercrombie, Democrat of Hawaii) has already lost his primary, another is headed for almost-certain defeat next month (Tom Corbett, Republican […]

Senate 2014: Roberts Slips in Kansas — And What’s Up in South Dakota?

Plus a slight upgrade for GOP House prospects

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Come January, Americans may witness something that, up to now, only 6% of the country’s population has ever seen: a senator from Kansas who is not a member of the Republican Party. That’s just one reason why the Sunflower State’s Senate race is the most interesting in the country with a month to go. Kansas […]

Republican Chances of Senate Takeover Are Improving

But Kansas race complicates matters

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them. While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Gubernatorial and House changes, plus the early read on early voting

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Gubernatorial changes: Déjà vu for Coakley? We’ve got four gubernatorial ratings changes to make this week. The big one is in Massachusetts, where state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) can no longer be called a favorite over Charlie Baker (R), also his party’s 2010 nominee. The most recent polls have generally shown a dead heat, […]

House 2014: Generic Movement, Specific Standstill

Republican gains in national polls don’t necessarily mean large House seat addition

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story. Throughout the election cycle, we’ve been closely monitoring the House generic ballot, which is the national poll that asks whether voters would support a Republican or a Democrat in their local House […]

Notes on the State of Politics

The GOP’s Jayhawk blues Washington Republicans were reaching for the Pepto-Bismol Wednesday night when the already intriguing Kansas Senate race took a dramatic turn: Chad Taylor, the Democratic candidate, is leaving the race. This gives independent businessman Greg Orman a clean shot at incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R). It’s been clear for much of the […]

House 2014: Handicapping The “Drive to 245”

How plausible is the GOP’s lower chamber goal?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Republican at the end of 1928 could look back on the previous few decades and smile: His party was quite clearly the dominant force in American politics. Starting in 1896, Republicans had held the White House for 24 of 32 years, interrupted only by the GOP split that helped Democrat Woodrow Wilson get elected […]

What’s the Matter With Kansas — And Hawaii?

Strange things afoot in 2014’s gubernatorial races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Royal Blue Hawaii and Ruby Red Kansas are two of the most predictable states in presidential and Senate elections. Yet both states have incumbent governors from the dominant parties who are fighting for their political lives. What gives? The 2014 gubernatorial map features a number of fascinating races, some of which — like Hawaii and […]

Senate: 2014 a Year All Its Own

Republicans’ takeover odds remain decent, but this isn’t 2006 or 2010

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Analysts always strain to generalize about elections. We want to “model” them, find the common elements, and project them as early as possible based on the commonalities. That’s a legitimate approach, but we need always remember that every election is different. Every single one. It isn’t just the candidates that change up, or the specific […]