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Archive for the ‘Notes on state of pol’ Category

The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton

Key to Trump's chances, the Keystone State looks less promising for him

, Managing Editor, UVA Center for Politics

While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now. She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points in Keystone State polling averages, […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

West Virginia governor: Manchin’s choice makes Republicans a narrow favorite After months of hinting that he might prefer to return home to run for a third term as governor, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decided to stay put in the Senate. That creates an open seat in the Mountain State — Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Nevada Senate after Reid’s retirement, plus two gubernatorial ratings changes and some House updates

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) last week gives Republicans something they have been lacking in the early stages of this Senate cycle: a 50-50 shot at picking up a seat currently held by a Democrat. True, Reid’s poor approval numbers meant he was going to be a target of Republicans anyway. […]

The Surge: Our Book on 2014 & 2016 Is Available for Pre-Order

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available for pre–order. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big […]

Notes on the State of Politics

The GOP’s Jayhawk blues Washington Republicans were reaching for the Pepto-Bismol Wednesday night when the already intriguing Kansas Senate race took a dramatic turn: Chad Taylor, the Democratic candidate, is leaving the race. This gives independent businessman Greg Orman a clean shot at incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R). It’s been clear for much of the […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Reaction to third-party piece In an article on the topic last week, we asked readers to chime in with other races where they thought third-party and independent candidates might have an impact on some statewide races. We got a lot of e-mails and tweets about the gubernatorial and Senate contests in Georgia, but multiple readers […]

Notes on the State of Politics

House ratings changes, next week's primaries and Center for Politics wins an Emmy

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

House ratings changes A race-by-race analysis, as well as history, suggests Republicans are in line to make a small, mid-to-high single-digit addition to their majority, but there’s been little movement one way or the other in most races or in the overall climate. We’re planning to take a fuller look at the House picture next […]

Notes on the State of Politics: Primary Edition

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

National Republicans get their men (and women) The key takeaway from Tuesday night’s primaries, and the primary season in general so far, is that national Republican leaders are getting the general election nominees they want in key races. What they do with those nominees in the fall remains to be seen. In Tuesday’s marquee event, […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Arkansas now a Toss-up It’s become clear over the past few months that Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), despite the increasing Republican lean of his state, has been holding his own, or better, against Rep. Tom Cotton (R, AR-4). Several positive polls for the incumbent, including a too-optimistic 11-point lead from NBC/Marist earlier this week, moved […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Primary season begins in earnest and Grimm tidings in the House

April quiet brings May excitement After two states, Texas and Illinois, held the first primary contests of the 2014 election calendar in March, April featured exactly zero. But a month and a half of inactivity will give way to a busy May primary season with 11 scheduled elections, as seen below in Table 1. Table […]

Notes on the State of Politics

2012 vs. 2013 Virginia vote shares quite close In early October, the Crystal Ball discussed the election-to-election relationship of the percentage of the total statewide vote each Virginia locality casts. While the correlation between 2009 and 2012 vote shares was almost perfect (R ­= .996), there was noticeably large voter drop-off in a few cities […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sarvis just the latest Virginia long shot This November, there will be only one statewide candidate out of seven in Virginia who doesn’t have “Republican” or “Democrat” next to his name. That individual is Robert Sarvis, who is running as a Libertarian for governor. (The other contests, for lieutenant governor and attorney general, feature only […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Political Analyst

Democrats catching breaks in North Carolina While we’re keeping the toss-up rating of the North Carolina Senate race, it’s reasonable to question the Republicans’ chances there against first-term Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC). The top announced candidate for the GOP is Thom Tillis (R), speaker of the state House of Representatives. National Republicans do not seem […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Massa-snooze-etts: A steady special election comes to a close The Massachusetts special Senate election is next Tuesday, and despite a lot of noise to the contrary, the race is not particularly close, nor has it been at any point of the contest. Rep. Ed Markey (D) has been and is a fairly strong favorite to […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Exit Bachmann Rep. Michele Bachmann’s (R, MN-6) decision not to seek a fifth term in the U.S. House makes it likelier that Republicans will hold her heavily Republican district. So we’re switching the rating in MN-6 from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.” Yes, it’s odd to argue that a party is better served by an […]