Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘History’ Category

1984 Presidential Election

President Reagan faced hardly any opposition to his re-nomination as the Republican bid for President. On the Democratic side, however, there were many new faces competing for the nomination. Sen. Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s Vice President, was the front runner throughout the election campaign. The most serious opposition were both Senator Gary Hart of Colorado, [...]

1960 Presidential Election

In 1958, Democratic seizure of American politics tightened its grip. With 64 Senate seats, 283 House seats, and 35 states with Democratic governors, the environment for active policy and social change ripened. For the 1960 election, Sens. John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Hubert Humphrey raced for the Democratic nomination. Kennedy was from a wealthy [...]

1964 Presidential Election

After his smooth transition to the oval office, it was understood that the Democratic nomination would be handed to President Johnson. The only objection to be heard was Gov. Wallace of Alabama whose “segregationist campaign took advantage of a backlash against the civil rights movement.” He did run against Johnson in three primaries, but after [...]

1952 Presidential Election

For the first time in 24 years, the nation’s presidential race did not feature an incumbent president. President Truman, facing a disenchanted national electorate, made a last minute decision to abandon his bid for the Democratic nomination. Indeed, the public had grown weary of 20 years of Democrats in control of the White House, and [...]

1956 Presidential Election

President Eisenhower was immediately renominated for president despite health concerns and his age of 66, he was the strong favorite of the Republicans and held a good standing with the public due to a booming economy. The choice of running with Nixon again was somewhat controversial, but his confidence in the vice president held strong.
In [...]

1968 Presidential Election

By now, the main political focus was clear: in 1968, thirty thousand Americans had been killed in action in the Vietnam War and television had brought the war into almost every American home. Due to social conditions and the war, Republican policy was heavily favored, and unlike the Democrats, the Republicans came into the election [...]

1972 Presidential Election

With 15 competitors for the nomination, the Democrats had a marathon of primaries in the 1972 election. The early favorite was the former senator and vice-presidential nominee in 1968, Edmund Muskie from Maine. However, after reformations of party politics after the unsuccessful circus of the 1968 convention, the road to nomination was bound to be [...]

1976 Presidential Election

The Democrats strengthened their majority in the 1974 midterm election due to the Watergate scandal and President Ford’s pardon of Nixon. This new Congress reorganized and undermined the seniority system that had directed Congress for years. This created a committee system that was more influenced by interest group politics than presidents and party leaders. Also [...]

1980 Presidential Election

President Carter was challenged for the Democratic nomination by Sen. Ted Kennedy. The farther left, liberal voters tended to favor Kennedy and his access to financial support and family prestige only boosted his advantage. However, after the seizure of American hostages in Iran, the nation was rallied around the president, turning the public eye away [...]

1988 Presidential Election

The election of 1988 was the first election in 20 years in which an incumbent president did not run. With no major figure or no major issues, the road to election day was a turbulent path. Most analysts regard this election as one of the most heated battles, with significant negative campaigning. Bush attacked Dukakis [...]

1992 Presidential Election

President Bush began the election cycle looking unbeatable. Coasting on the apparent success of his leadership during the Gulf War, Bush appeared to have the strength to lead the United States into what he called “the new world order.” For a while, President Bush appeared so strong that many Democrats were reluctant to take him [...]

2000 Presidential Election

There have been many close presidential elections, but never before- and maybe never again- will there be one as excruciatingly tight as the election of 2000. A contest that attracted more than 105 million Americans to the polls essentially came down to a few hundred ballots in one state: a margin of less than one-thousandth [...]

1996 Presidential Election

Although the polls were strongly in Clinton’s favor leading up to the election, they were also displaying an uneasiness with the president’s character, due to the continuing bad publicity of the Whitewater accusations and the sexual harassment charges against Clinton. However, though these same polls were revealing low confidence in the president’s character, a reelection [...]