August 25th, 2011
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In the vengeful world of politics, what goes around often comes around.
After the November midterm elections in Ohio in 1994, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, Harry Meshel, received a telephone message: A county commissioner had called asking for Meshel’s resignation in the wake of the calamitous election, in which Republicans won control of [...]
April 7th, 2011
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Recent events in Wisconsin and a number of other states have focused attention on the role played by labor unions in contemporary American politics. As Scott Walker and other conservative Republican governors have sought to reduce the power of public employee unions in their states by weakening collective bargaining rights, the unions and their supporters [...]
February 3rd, 2011
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Thanks to Tim Storey and his colleagues at the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Crystal Ball can share with you the most up-to-date picture of power control in the states. It is summed up nicely in the two maps and one graph, below.
Republicans now control both legislative chambers in exactly half the states, the [...]
January 25th, 2011
Today the University of Virginia Center for Politics released its latest book, Pendulum Swing, drawing on the collective wisdom of nearly two dozen of the nation’s top political analysts, journalists, and academics for comprehensive analysis of the 2010 midterm elections and the subsequent policy implications. As President Barack Obama makes his first address to the [...]
January 13th, 2011
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If we took the title of this short essay seriously, we’d stop right here. You can’t make sense of the act of a madman. Whatever political influences may have been at work —if any—in the shooter’s warped mind, the compulsions that sent him to his rendezvous with infamy last Saturday were undeniably psychotic.
Americans are familiar [...]
December 9th, 2010
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Late last week, a state judge on Long Island in New York certified that Mineola mayor Jack Martins, a Republican, had won the race for state Senate District 7 by a mere 451 votes out of the more than 85,000 cast. With that win, the GOP took control of the New York Senate by a [...]
September 23rd, 2010
On the eve of 50th anniversary of the election of President John F. Kennedy, the University Center for Politics announced details for a major new book on JFK by Center Director Larry J. Sabato and the production of a national television documentary focused on the legacies of President Kennedy and his administration. Also, later this [...]
September 9th, 2010
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Virtually every leading political indicator points to a midterm election this November that could range anywhere from difficult to disastrous for Democrats.
The nation’s high unemployment rate, the declining approval ratings for President Barack Obama, and the Democrats’ lingering deficit in the generic congressional ballot all paint a dark picture for the ruling party.
And now, [...]
August 12th, 2010
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In the past two weeks, the Crystal Ball has published its first extended state legislative analyses, looking at the 6,115 seats in the state senates and the state houses up in November (in 46 states). Tim Storey of the NCSL identified the chambers that are competitive and thus most likely to switch party control after [...]
August 5th, 2010
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Everyone already knows the 2010 elections are significant and competitive. Let’s add record-setting to that description. Why?
2010 features the most U.S. Senate seats on the November ballot (37) since 1962.
2010 also has the most elections for governor ever on the same ballot (also 37).
2010 has produced one of the highest percentages of Democratic-versus-Republican House line-ups [...]
August 5th, 2010
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Every campaign season is filled with the good, the bad, and the ugly—enough to fill a book. Here’s an interim selection of examples as we prepare to enter the full-blown general election season.
GOOD CANDIDATE DOING BADLY: In another year, Congressman—we mean Sheriff—Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) could win the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN). [...]
August 5th, 2010
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On the eve of Elena Kagan’s expected confirmation to the Supreme Court, we are delighted to share with our readers the following piece from David Kuhn, the Chief Political Correspondent for RealClearPolitics.
We have become accustomed to “minimum winning coalitions” in recent decades. But throughout the 19th century, a one-vote majority decided only 1 percent of [...]
July 29th, 2010
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Along with the entire House of Representatives and 37 U.S. Senate seats, voters this November will be going to the polls to elect thousands of state senators and representatives. Eighty-eight of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers are up for election this year. And while these state legislative elections are less glamorous and attract far [...]
July 22nd, 2010
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Elections for the thousands of state legislative seats that determine partisan control of states are typically provincial battles drawing relatively little attention from national media. These legislative elections are often called hidden elections. However, the spotlight this November will spill over to these down-ballot races because redistricting is around the corner, so the results in [...]
July 1st, 2010
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California voters recently approved a ballot initiative that would drastically alter the Golden State’s election system. Instead of the traditional two-stage electoral process with separate Democratic and Republican primaries followed by a general election between the major party nominees along with any independent or third party candidates, the new system would feature an open primary [...]
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