Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 President’ Category

Biden Would be Arguably the Most Experienced New President Ever

He will run as the president who needs no training. But he may be the candidate who cannot be trained

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If Joe Biden wins the presidency, he will bring with him nearly a half-century of elected officeholding experience, giving him perhaps the fullest resume of public service possessed by any new president ever. — It may be that Democrats are more open to a very experienced candidate than Republicans […]

“It’s easy to see how Trump can win reelection”

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Tuesday arguing that despite the unconventional nature of Donald Trump’s presidency, his path to reelection may end up being not so different from those of previous Republican presidents: President Trump thrives on […]

Trump’s Primary Goal: Avoiding a New Hampshire Hiccup

First-in-the-nation primary can reveal the strength -- or weakness -- of presidential incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump remains a huge favorite to win renomination as the Republican presidential nominee, although he will have at least some opposition. — The New Hampshire primary has historically tested the strength of presidential incumbents. — In the primary’s modern history, incumbents who won easy victories went on to […]

The Democratic Nomination: It Doesn’t Have to be a Long Slog

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The size of the Democratic field, combined with the party’s proportional allocation of delegates and other factors, raises the possibility of a very long nomination process that may not be decided until the convention. — However, the voting calendar is so frontloaded that a nominee may emerge relatively early […]

Assessing Trump’s Chances: Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of projecting presidential elections. In 2016, it showed Donald Trump as a favorite to win the national popular vote. Though Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College, the model presented an early […]

Trump’s Fate Now Even More Squarely in Hands of the Voters

, UVA Center for Politics

  Editor’s Note: This is a special edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our usual Thursday publication next week. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the conclusion of the Mueller probe, President Trump being forced from office or the ballot because of legal troubles is even less […]

This Century’s Electoral College Trends

Tracking the strength of the parties in all 50 states

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite persistently close presidential elections this century, many states have been becoming dramatically more Democratic or Republican compared to the nation over the course of the last decade and a half. — Generally speaking, the Sun Belt and West are trending Democratic. The Midwest and North more broadly, along […]

Don’t Sell Biden’s Vice Presidential Experience Short

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be away for the University of Virginia’s spring break next week. We’ll return on Thursday, March 21. We’re pleased this week to welcome back to the Crystal Ball Joel Goldstein, perhaps the nation’s leading expert on the vice presidency. Joel challenges the notion that the vice presidency is […]

The 2020 Electoral College: Our First Look

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our initial Electoral College ratings reflect a 2020 presidential election that starts as a Toss-up. — We start with 248 electoral votes at least leaning Republican, 244 at least leaning Democratic, and 46 votes in the Toss-up category. — The omissions from the initial Toss-up category that readers […]

New Virginia poll: Northam approval weak, but Virginians not demanding his resignation

Fairfax in worst shape of three embattled state Democrats; Virginians split on how to fill potential vacancies in top offices; Trump approval low

A new University of Virginia Center for Politics/Ipsos poll of Virginia adults shows Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with weak approval numbers, but Virginians surveyed are not demanding his resignation and do not favor the state legislature removing him through impeachment. Meanwhile, a plurality of respondents say Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (D) should resign, but another […]

How you can help furloughed federal workers

The Center for Politics stands for good politics, but politics has broken down — it isn’t working, and hundreds of thousands of government workers and their families, as well as government contractors and their families, are suffering. The shutdown is the longest in United States history and shows no sign of ending. Through no fault […]

Watch this morning’s American Democracy Conference

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is hosting its 20th annual American Democracy Conference this morning in Charlottesville. A conference livestream is available at: The schedule is as follows: 9 a.m. — Keynote address by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) 10 a.m. — Panel discussion on Donald Trump at the midterm of his […]

2020 Electoral College: Why the Republicans’ magic number is probably 269, not 270

Despite Democratic takeover, Republicans still hold an edge if the House has to pick the president

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is at least one plausible Electoral College scenario that produces a 269-269 tie, which would throw the presidential election to the House of Representatives elected in 2020. — If the House decides the presidency, you might think that Democrats would have the advantage, given their new majority. But […]

Join us for the American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville

Conference will be livestreamed next Thursday

Next Thursday, Jan. 24, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host its 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville. The event will be held at Alumni Hall, 211 Emmet St. South, on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public with advanced registration, and members of […]

The Wandering Voters

How 2018’s gubernatorial results reflected 2016’s presidential trends

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 2018 governors’ races continued along the same realignment patterns that emerged in the 2016 presidential election. — An analysis of protest third-party votes for president in 2016 indicates those voters were likelier to pick the Democrats’ side in the 2018 election. 2016’s changes endured in 2018 gubernatorial races In […]