Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 President’ Category

New Poll: Majority of Americans Believe Race Relations Have Worsened Under President Trump

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of Americans surveyed believe that race relations in the United States have gotten at least somewhat worse since President Donald Trump’s election. The poll also explores American racial attitudes at the one-year anniversary of a neo-Nazi […]

New Poll: Americans Strongly Support Term Limits for Judges

Whatever price elected Republicans eventually pay for standing by President Donald J. Trump — and every party eventually pays at least some price for holding the White House — one could argue that Republicans have already gotten enough from Trump to justify backing him. In his always-interesting quarterly report, GOP lobbyist Bruce Mehlman has compiled […]

Center for Politics/Ipsos Poll: Just Half of Americans Believe Elections Are Fair and Open

New national survey shows Americans critical of big money in politics, supportive of disclosure, but skeptical of judicial intervention

  Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We will also have an issue Thursday, July 19.   Only about half of American adults believe elections are fair and open, and large majorities of Americans express skepticism about big money in politics and favor disclosure of donations. […]

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

The Uncertain Political Ramifications of Justice Kennedy’s Exit

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. President Donald […]

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State Into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

History Suggests Double Trouble for Incumbent Trump

, Guest Columnist

This is part one of a back-and-forth between Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and veteran reporter and presidential historian Paul Brandus assessing President Donald Trump’s reelection odds in 2020. See the piece from Kondik here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump’s weak approval rating is a bad sign for […]

Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is part two of a back-and-forth between Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and veteran reporter and presidential historian Paul Brandus assessing President Trump’s reelection odds in 2020. See the piece from Brandus here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — So long as President Trump is on the ballot in 2020, […]

Explaining Support for Trump in the White Working Class: Race vs. Economics

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Data from the Pew Research Center show that six months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the gap between whites with and without college degrees in opinions of the president was enormous. Non-college whites were far more likely to approve of Trump’s performance than white college graduates. — This gap appears […]

Public Rates Presidents: Kennedy, Reagan, Obama at Top, Nixon, Johnson, Trump at Bottom

Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll measures views of recent chief executives at Presidents’ Day

As Americans prepare to celebrate Presidents’ Day, they rate John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan the best of recent chief executives, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The Center for Politics and Ipsos collaborated to survey Americans’ views of modern presidents and asked […]

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Did Bernie Sanders Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency?

, Guest Columnist

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of […]

“This Is the House That Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait […]

The 2016 Election: An Earthquake or a Hurricane?

, Guest Columnist

Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory has been compared to an earthquake, a seismic event that toppled fledging dynasties in both major parties, ruptured political alliances, damaged the reputation of pundits, and left millions in shock or depressed. To this day, its after-effects, like tsunamis or landslides that can follow an earthquake, continue to affect […]