Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 President’ Category

How you can help furloughed federal workers

The Center for Politics stands for good politics, but politics has broken down — it isn’t working, and hundreds of thousands of government workers and their families, as well as government contractors and their families, are suffering. The shutdown is the longest in United States history and shows no sign of ending. Through no fault […]

Watch this morning’s American Democracy Conference

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is hosting its 20th annual American Democracy Conference this morning in Charlottesville. A conference livestream is available at: The schedule is as follows: 9 a.m. — Keynote address by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) 10 a.m. — Panel discussion on Donald Trump at the midterm of his […]

2020 Electoral College: Why the Republicans’ magic number is probably 269, not 270

Despite Democratic takeover, Republicans still hold an edge if the House has to pick the president

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is at least one plausible Electoral College scenario that produces a 269-269 tie, which would throw the presidential election to the House of Representatives elected in 2020. — If the House decides the presidency, you might think that Democrats would have the advantage, given their new majority. But […]

Join us for the American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville

Conference will be livestreamed next Thursday

Next Thursday, Jan. 24, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host its 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville. The event will be held at Alumni Hall, 211 Emmet St. South, on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public with advanced registration, and members of […]

The Wandering Voters

How 2018’s gubernatorial results reflected 2016’s presidential trends

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 2018 governors’ races continued along the same realignment patterns that emerged in the 2016 presidential election. — An analysis of protest third-party votes for president in 2016 indicates those voters were likelier to pick the Democrats’ side in the 2018 election. 2016’s changes endured in 2018 gubernatorial races In […]

Trump to the rescue? Presidential campaigning and the 2018 U.S. Senate elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is not much evidence that President Trump’s rallies held for GOP Senate candidates had much of an effect on the results. — At the very least, two other factors were significantly more important: The normal partisan lean of the states where those contests took place and the advantage […]

2018 Senate: How the “Trump Ten” Races Compared to 2016

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off next week for Thanksgiving. We wish all of our readers a safe and happy holiday. After the holiday, please make a note to watch our 20th Annual American Democracy Conference on the morning of Thursday, Nov. 29. The conference will feature keynote speakers Rep. Adam Schiff […]

New Poll: Majority of Americans Believe Race Relations Have Worsened under President Trump

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of Americans surveyed believe that race relations in the United States have gotten at least somewhat worse since President Donald Trump’s election. The poll also explores American racial attitudes at the one-year anniversary of a neo-Nazi […]

New Poll: Americans Strongly Support Term Limits for Judges

Whatever price elected Republicans eventually pay for standing by President Donald J. Trump — and every party eventually pays at least some price for holding the White House — one could argue that Republicans have already gotten enough from Trump to justify backing him. In his always-interesting quarterly report, GOP lobbyist Bruce Mehlman has compiled […]

Center for Politics/Ipsos poll: Just Half of Americans Believe Elections Are Fair and Open

New national survey shows Americans critical of big money in politics, supportive of disclosure, but skeptical of judicial intervention

  Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We will also have an issue Thursday, July 19.   Only about half of American adults believe elections are fair and open, and large majorities of Americans express skepticism about big money in politics and favor disclosure of donations. […]

Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

The uncertain political ramifications of Justice Kennedy’s exit

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. President Donald […]

Mad As Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

History Suggests Double Trouble for Incumbent Trump

, Guest Columnist

This is part one of a back-and-forth between Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and veteran reporter and presidential historian Paul Brandus assessing President Donald Trump’s reelection odds in 2020. See the piece from Kondik here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump’s weak approval rating is a bad sign for […]