Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 President’ Category

Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. — A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All performed worse than those who […]

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

Bevin blows it in Kentucky; Mississippi remains out of reach for Democrats; mixed signals confirm larger trends

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. — Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a broader loss […]

The Trade War’s Risks for Trump

Agriculture and manufacturing are significant industries in 2020’s most important states

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We’re pleased this week to welcome Louis Jacobson to the Crystal Ball team. Jacobson, a veteran political journalist and analyst, is joining the Crystal Ball as a Senior Columnist and will be writing monthly columns for us on state-level politics. In his debut column, Jacobson takes a look at the impact of the […]

Up-Ballot Effects: Expanding the Electoral College Battleground

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan might work for the Electoral College but could hurt a candidate’s party in down-ballot Senate and House races. — Senate and House battlegrounds are scattered across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, which could incentivize presidential candidates to […]

The Democrats Descend on Ohio

But will they next year?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As the Democrats debate in Ohio, questions loom about how important the state will be in next year’s presidential election. — Two key demographic indicators help explain why the state swung toward the Republicans in 2016 and why it seems likely to again vote to the right of the […]

The Electoral College: It Doesn’t Always Lean Toward Republicans

Reform efforts face long odds, and such reforms might not necessarily help Democrats in the long run

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Proposals to abolish the Electoral College, whether through a constitutional amendment or through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, face an uphill climb. — Historically, the Electoral College has not given the Republicans a consistent advantage in presidential elections, but one may develop in the near future. The long […]

The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment

If there’s a trial in the upper chamber, who might feel the heat?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Nationalization is an increasingly important trend in American election outcomes. It’s hard to think of a more nationalizing issue than a presidential impeachment. — Vulnerable members on both sides in the Senate will have a lot to consider if and when they have to cast a vote on convicting […]

2020 Primary and Caucus Cancellations Through the Lens of Recent History

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans in several states have canceled primaries and caucuses in 2020 as President Trump seeks renomination. — To be sure, the Trump campaign and various state GOP organizations are working to smooth the president’s path to renomination and attempting to reduce any divisiveness within the Republican primary electorate and […]

The Electoral College: Expanding the Map

Trump is at least a small underdog in all the Clinton states, but trying to play offense is wise

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map. — While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end […]

Biden’s challenge: Iowa and New Hampshire

The schedule advantages Biden’s rivals, although it’s unclear if they can capitalize; NC-9 fallout

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar. — Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white. — However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in […]

Notes on the State of Politics

The one big exception to the stability in the Democratic race; Trump’s high GOP approval defines the Republican primary; special developments in Georgia, Wisconsin

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners. — Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong. — Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) pending resignation expands the Senate playing […]

Which Party’s Voters are More Divided?

Hint: It’s Not the One You Think

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. — This has led to questions about whether ideological fissures in the Democratic Party could make it harder for the party to rally around its eventual nominee. — However, Democrats actually are more united on individual issue positions than […]

The Big Six Swing States in 2020

There may be a positive GOP trend in all of them

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 2020 election may effectively be decided by six crucial swing states, all of which featured margins of less than two percentage points in 2016. — While these states are up for grabs in 2020, there are signs that these states have been becoming more hospitable to Republicans over […]

Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. — This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may have impacted the results, particularly […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Debate effects can fade; Trump may be running behind his approval; the NC-9 special; a Magnolia runoff?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started. — In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment. — The NC-9 […]